GLOBEC-01: Zooplankton Population Dynamics on Georges Bank: Model and Data Synthesis

该项目的目的是通过气候变化对对流输送、温度、食物可获得性和捕食者领域的影响，从机械上了解气候变化对乔治斯滩目标浮游动物物种(Calanus finmarchicus、Pseudocalanus moltoni、P.Newmani和Oithona Similis)的种群动态和产量的影响。以数据分析和模型为工具，正在将GLOBEC前三个阶段取得的成果纳入调节浅滩浮游动物丰度的物理和生物过程的新综合体。物理模型将被迫使用每日测量的、每年可变的数据，并与合成在GLOBEC计划期间收集的详细观测数据的生物模型相结合。为了了解平流的作用，并区分物理和生物过程的影响，正在开发物理和生物模型的层次结构。这些模型包括一维、二维和三维物理模型、生态系统模型和基于个体的目标物种模型(IBM)。IBM正在与一维物理模型相耦合，这些物理模型旨在代表缅因湾和乔治河岸不同分区域的特征环境。最终，IBM将通过粒子跟踪与完整的3D物理/生态系统模型相耦合。这将提供一个物理和生物环境，以发展和探索关于物理和生物因素对桡足类种群动态的综合影响的假说。尽管将研究所有大范围调查年份的种群动态，但初步调查集中在1995年、1998年和1999年。这些数据集是这些年来最完整的，并提供了1998年和1999年的SeaWiFS数据。这些年也代表了一系列广泛的环境条件：1999年缅因湾出现大规模冬季水华，这与斯科特大陆架流入和层化增加有关；1995年略暖；1998年的风暴活动比1999年更强。正在调查的具体问题包括：1-4月期间对目标浮游动物物种平流补给的风控；6-4月期间，Finmarchicus对缅因湾滞育种群平流通量的年际和/或事件水平变化；乔治斯海岸和岸上次区域桡足类平流损失的年际和/或事件水平变化；层化对浮游动物生态系统的影响，以及这如何通过食物和捕食影响目标浮游动物物种的种群动态。作为第四阶段目标浮游鱼类合成研究的一个环节，这项调查提供了对决定幼体鳕鱼和黑线鳕鱼的桡足类猎物产量的因素的机械洞察。一些学生将在第四阶段的研究过程中接受培训。这些学生正在接受培训，成为受过广泛教育的研究人员，擅长将不同学科的技术结合到他们的工作中。此外，这是两名年轻研究人员(Pringle，Gentleman)毕业后的第一个主要独立资金来源。

The goal of this project is to gain a mechanistic understanding of the influences ofclimate variation on the population dynamics and production of target zooplankton species on Georges Bank (Calanus finmarchicus, Pseudocalanus moultoni, P. newmani, and Oithona similis) through its effects on advective transport, temperature, food availability, and predator fields. Using data analysis and models as tools, results acquired during the first three phases of GLOBEC are being incorporated into a new synthesis of the physical and biological processes regulating zooplankton abundance on the Bank. Physical models will be forced with measured daily, interannually variable data, and coupled to biological models synthesizing the detailed observations collected during the GLOBEC program.To understand the role of advection, and to disentangle the effects of physical and biological processes, a hierarchy of physical and biological models are being developed. These include 1-, 2-, and 3- D physical models, ecosystem models, and individual-based models (IBMs) for the target species. The IBMs are being coupled to 1D physical models designed to represent the characteristic environments of the different Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank subregions. Ultimately, the IBMs will be coupled to the full 3D physical/ecosystem model through particle tracking. This will provide a physical and biological milieu in which to develop and probe hypotheses regarding the combined influences of physical and biological factors on the copepod population dynamics.Although the population dynamics in all broadscale survey years will be studied, initialinvestigations are concentrating on 1995, 1998 and 1999. The data sets are the most complete for these years, and SeaWiFS data are available for 1998 and 1999. These years also represent a wide range of environmental conditions: an extensive winter bloom in the Gulf of Maine in 1999 related to Scotian Shelf inflow and increased stratification; a slightly warmer year in 1995; and stronger storm activity in 1998 than 1999. In addition 1998, and to a lesser extent 1999, gave the indication of being strong years for haddock recruitment but apparently not for cod.Specific issues that are being investigated include: wind control of the advective supply of the target zooplankton species to Georges Bank during January-April; interannual and/or event-level variations in the advective flux of Calanus finmarchicus to Gulf of Maine basin diapausing populations during June-April; interannual and/or event-level variations in advective losses of copepods from Georges Bank and bank subregions; the influence of stratification on the planktonic ecosystem, and how this affects the population dynamics of the target zooplankton species through food and predation. As a link to Phase IV synthesis studies on target ichthyoplankton, this investigation provides mechanistic insight into the factors determining production of copepod prey for larval cod and haddock on the Bank.A number of students will be trained over the course of the Phase IV research. These students are being trained as broadly educated researchers adept at combining techniques from a variety of disciplines in their work. In addition, this is the first major independent funding source since graduation for two young investigators (Pringle, Gentleman).