NSF/CONACyT: Integrated Air Modeling Approach to PM Source Apportionment at the USA/Mexico Border

[0220079]犹他大学（UofU）和蒙特雷高等研究技术学院（ITESM）参与了美国/墨西哥边境下里约热内卢格兰德山谷（LRGV）部分选定地区环境颗粒物（PM）的合作空气质量建模研究。正在特别关注在几个边境大城市附近观察到的PM水平非常高的特殊夜间事件，据报告至少在一个区域与死亡风险增加有关。合作伙伴最近参与了一项全面的PM特征和来源归属研究，并建议使用一种新颖的，通过交叉验证PM受体模型的结果（使用受体和源特性数据的因子分析来估计主要源贡献）和PM源模型的结果（使用区域排放估计和基于地理和气象的弥散模型来预测特定受体位点的傍晚PM浓度），对PM源分配的综合方法。两种方法的成功整合应该允许在有限的采样位置和时间点之间进行一定程度的插值，同时能够校准源建模预测。其他潜在的好处包括改善各种人群的PM暴露风险评估机会，以及对广泛报道的24小时PM平均值与城市死亡率和发病率之间的统计关联进行更详细的评估。大多数PM受体表征和建模任务将由Uof U团队执行，而源测量和建模任务的主要责任将由ITESM团队承担。测量、数据融合、评估和解释任务的整合将需要两个团队高度协调的努力，这是由NSF-CONACyT合作研究机会计划支持的国际合作。

0220079 Lighty The University of Utah (UofU) and the Instituto Tecnologico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (ITESM) are involved in a collaborative air quality modeling study of ambient particulate matter (PM) in selected areas of the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) section of the USA/Mexico border. Special attention is being given to the peculiar evening episodes with very high PM levels observed near several large border cities and reported to be associated with increased mortality risk in at least one region.The partners have recently participated in a comprehensive PM characterization and source attribution study of the Paso del Norte airshed and propose to use a novel, integrated approach to PM source apportionment by cross-validating the results of PM Receptor Modeling (using factor analysis of receptor and source characterization data to estimate major source contributions) with PM Source Modeling results (using area emission estimates and geography- plus meteorology-based dispersion models to predict evening PM concentrations at specific receptor sites). Successful integration of both methods should permit some degree of interpolation between the limited sampling locations and time points afforded by Receptor Modeling alone while enabling calibration of Source Modeling predictions. Other potential benefits include improved PM exposure risk assessment opportunities for various population groups and more detailed evaluation of the widely reported statistical association between 24-hr PM averages and urban mortality plus morbidity. Most of the PM receptor characterization and modeling tasks will be carried out by the Uof U team whereas primary responsibility for the source measurement and modeling tasks will be undertaken by the ITESM team. Integration of measurement, data fusion, evaluation, and interpretation tasks will require a highly coordinated effort by both teams, an International Collaboration being supported by the NSF-CONACyT Collaborative Research Opportunities Program.