Collaborative Research: Detection and attribution of changes in the hydrologic regimes of the Mackenzie, the Kuparuk and the Lena River Basins

这项研究的目的是检测和记录加拿大西部，阿拉斯加和东西伯利亚北极地区的淡水储存变化，将这些变化归因于其土地覆盖或气候来源，并评估过去和未来储存成分变化的影响（例如，活动层深度、湖泊体积）对北冰洋淡水输入的影响。其目的是在空间上描述不断变化的水文状况，以促进对未来水文条件的准确预测，并发展数值模拟能力，1）准确捕捉当代气候和水文动态，2）对未来情景做出合理准确的预测; 3）结合了将分发给希望包括北极地区动态陆面过程的其他模拟组的有据可查的算法（例如，在一个实施例中，用于植被动力学或气体通量的研究）。研究人员还将通过使用基于空间的模型结果来开发基于地理的模型，从而提供泛北极的视角。该研究大致分为两个主要部分：过程级水文研究和大规模大气研究，并有一个明确的方法来弥合规模差异。过程级研究包括实地观察和分析水文循环中的储存成分，以及模拟它们在水文循环中的作用。实地研究包括对主要储存组成部分的调查，并通过文献检索和遥感技术填补了许多空白。还将在沿着北/南断面的几个小流域进行流域规模的实地研究，这些流域包括有长期记录和正在进行的测量方案的中育空地区、Kuparuk、上育空地区、麦肯齐和Lena流域。WaterWERCs模型将应用于这些小的子流域，使用当代记录进行校准和验证，并应用于整个流域，用于我们的大气模拟驱动的过去，现在和未来的气候情景。大气模型PAM是一个最先进的区域气候模型，将专门用于泛北极环境，并将由网格化的大气再分析驱动。将利用现有观测数据验证大气模型结果，并将网格化模型输出用于建立水文模型。

The objectives of this research are to detect and document changes in the storage of freshwater in the Arctic regions of the Western Canadian, Alaskan, and Eastern Siberian Arctic, to ascribe those changes to their land cover or climate source, and assess the impacts of past and future variations in storage components (e.g., active layer depth, lake volume) on freshwater inputs into the Arctic Ocean. The aim is to characterize the changing hydrologic regime spatially to facilitate accurate projections of future hydrologic conditions and to develop a numerical modeling capability that 1) accurately captures contemporary climatic and hydrologic dynamics, 2) projects reasonably accurate responses to future scenarios and 3) incorporates well documented algorithms that will be distributed to other modeling groups wishing to include dynamic land surface processes in arctic regions (e.g., for studies of vegetation dynamics or gas flux). The investigators will also provide a pan-Arctic perspective by using spatially-based model results to develop a statistically-based model. The research is divided broadly into two main components: process-level hydrologic studies and large-scale atmospheric studies, with a well-defined approach to bridge the scale differences. Process-level studies include field observations and analyses of the storage components in the hydrological cycle as well as modeling of their role in the hydrological cycle. Field studies include surveys of the main storage components, with literature searches and remote sensing filling in many of the gaps. Field studies on the watershed scale will also be conducted at several small watersheds along North/South transects covering the Middle Yukon, Kuparuk, Upper Yukon, Mackenzie and Lena watersheds where long-term records and on-going measurement programs exist. The WaterWERCs model will be applied to these small sub-watersheds for calibration and validation using contemporary records, and to the entire watersheds for both climate scenarios of the past, present and future driven from our atmospheric modeling. The atmospheric model, PAM, is a state-of-the-art regional climate model that will be tailored for use in a pan-Arctic setting and will be driven by gridded atmospheric re-analyses. The atmospheric model results will be validated with available observational data and the gridded model output will be used to force a hydrologic model.