Small Grant for Exploratory Research: Public Support in the Aftermath of 9-11

这个项目调查了在重大国际事件之前、期间和之后对国家安全政策的支持的情感基础，在这种情况下，预期的与伊拉克的武装冲突。围绕伊拉克构成的威胁以及与美国在那里的军事行动相关的风险，存在着巨大的不确定性。这种不确定性很可能会重新引发和加剧9·11事件后的情绪反应。公民会像过去的冲突中那样团结起来支持总统吗？或者，9/11事件改变了局势，以至于军事行动的潜在风险现在主导着公众的讨论？那些被9/11摧毁了安全感的美国人会因为谈论先发制人打击伊拉克而放心吗？或者他们会不会感到更不安全？更广泛地说，这些情绪在公众对国家安全威胁的反应以及对政府应对这些威胁的政策的支持或反对中扮演了什么角色？最近在心理学和政治学方面的工作(Bargh和Chartrand，1999；Marcus，Neuman和MacKuen，2000；Marcus，2002；Zajonc，1998)，特别是当与9/11研究的早期发现结合在一起时，将表明当国家安全岌岌可危时，情绪扮演着核心的、或许是决定性的角色。行政当局支持立即对伊拉克采取行动的运动日益激烈，因此必须了解公众在未来几周对伊拉克的审议情况。为了捕捉在这场重大国家安全危机中舆论的演变，调查人员在石溪大学研究人员在9/11事件后几个月收集的现有国家数据集上增加了两波(Huddy、Feldman、Taber和Lahav，2002)；第二波将在2002年10月对该样本进行重新采访(有200名新受访者)，第三波将被分成两波，一半在敌对行动开始后立即重新采访，另一半在事态稳定后重新采访。这一设计使调查人员最大限度地了解了对风险、抑郁、焦虑、愤怒和安抚的看法是如何影响公众舆论的，这些措施是在三个不同的时间点采取的：在伊拉克出现在大多数人的雷达上之前(9/11事件后的第一波)，在对伊拉克采取军事行动的公开讨论中(第二波，2002年10月)，在军事行动之后(第三波，一半)，以及一段时间后(最后一个阶段反映了军事行动过程的影响(第三波，一半))。这项研究的更广泛的焦点是情感在塑造人们理解和应对重大危机的方式中的核心作用。虽然关注的是情绪在威胁情境中的核心作用，但该项目也对情感智力理论进行了测试，这是一种综合理论，提供了一套关于潜意识情绪评估系统的分类，以及关于它们对认知和行为的各种影响的假设。该项目有助于更深入地了解公众对美国海外军事行动的支持，并有助于了解公众对反恐战争的支持。越南战争、索马里军事活动等军事行动突显了舆论的力量，可以增强或削弱美国政府出动武装力量、驻扎海外部队和部署地面部队的能力。该项目有助于突出风险和恐惧在解释公众支持军事行动的动态方面的关键作用。这项研究对政府机构和其他对公众支持美国外交政策感兴趣的组织具有广泛的适用性。

This project investigates the emotional underpinnings of support for national security policy in the period before, during, and after a major international event, in this case the anticipated armed conflict with Iraq. Tremendous uncertainty surrounds the threat posed by Iraq and the risks associated with U.S. military action there. This uncertainty is very likely to rekindle and intensify emotional reactions that were present in the aftermath of 9/11. Will citizens rally behind the President as has happened in past conflicts? Or has the landscape been altered by the events of 9/11, so that the potential risks of military action now dominate public deliberation? Will those Americans whose sense of security was shattered by 9/11 be reassured by talk of preemptive strikes against Iraq, or will they feel even less secure? More generally, what roles do the emotions play in public reactions to national security threats and support or opposition for government policies in response to those threats? Recent work in psychology and political science (Bargh and Chartrand, 1999; Marcus, Neuman, and MacKuen, 2000; Marcus, 2002; Zajonc, 1998), especially when coupled with the early findings from 9/11 research would suggest a central, perhaps determinative, role for emotions when national security is on the line. The Administration's increasingly intense campaign in support of taking imminent action against Iraq makes it vital to understand the public's deliberation on Iraq over the coming weeks. To capture the evolution of public opinion in the midst of this major national security crisis, the investigators add two additional waves to an existing national dataset collected by researchers at Stony Brook in the months after 9/11 (Huddy, Feldman, Taber, and Lahav, 2002); the second wave will be a re-interview of this sample (with 200 new respondents) to be conducted in October, 2002, and the third wave will be split, with half re-interviewed immediately after hostilities begin and half when things settle down. This design gives the investigators maximal purchase in understanding how perceptions of risk, depression, anxiety, anger, and reassurance shape public opinion with measures taken at three different time points: before Iraq was on most people's radar (wave 1, post 9/11), in the midst of public discussion of proposed military action against Iraq (wave 2, October 2002), in the immediate aftermath of military action (wave 3, split-half), and after some time has passed (this last phase reflect the impact of the course of military action (wave 3, split-half)). The broader focus of this research is on the central role of emotion in shaping how people comprehend and respond to major crises. Although concerned with the central role of emotion in threat situations, the project also provides a test of the theory of affective intelligence, a comprehensive theory that provides a taxonomy of preconscious emotion appraisal systems and hypotheses about their various impacts on cognition and behavior. The project contributes to a deeper understanding of public support for US military engagement overseas, and sheds light on public support for the war on terrorism. The Vietnam war, military activity in Somalia, and other military engagements have highlighted the power of public opinion to strengthen or weaken the ability of the US government to send armed forces into combat, station troops overseas, and deploy ground forces. This project helps to highlight the critical role of risk and fear in explaining the dynamics of public support for military engagement. This research has broad applicability to government agencies and other organizations interested in public support of US foreign policy.