Small Grant for Exploratory Research: Americans Respond to Hurricane Katrina

目的和智力价值：本研究探讨卡特里娜飓风灾难的政治后果。据估计，救灾和重建成本已超过2000亿美元，只有公众对灾民和政府的大力和持续支持，才能提供必要的政治资本，确保恢复工作所需的资金。然而，飓风过后，美国人对政府的信任度下降，尤其是对政府应对自然灾害和未来可能发生的恐怖主义的能力的信任度下降。关于政府为重建工作买单的最佳方式的争论也越来越多。最终，卡特里娜飓风的长期政治后果将在很大程度上取决于公众对这场灾难及其受害者的反应，而目前公众的看法远非一致。一些美国人继续信任政府，而另一些人则不这样认为。一些人希望减少国内外支出，而另一些人则希望推迟减税。一些人认为种族和阶级是造成新奥尔良人类和社会灾难的决定性因素，另一些人则反对这种观点。调查人员特别关注美国人对种族的看法，认为种族可能是理解公众对政府对灾难受害者的义务及其在处理救灾工作中的表现的反应的一个决定性因素。大量研究表明，对种族和种族不平等根源的不同看法是美国人对政府社会福利政策、反贫困项目和一系列政府援助项目产生分歧的一个重要原因。新闻媒体对卡特里娜飓风灾难的报道清楚地表明，在最初被留在新奥尔良的人群中，贫穷的非裔美国人占了多数。为了更充分地评估种族态度在政府对卡特里娜飓风的救援行动的反应中可能起的分裂作用，研究人员扩展了一项正在进行的美国国家科学基金会资助的研究项目，研究美国人的种族态度。具体来说，他们重新采访了美国种族民意调查（AROS）中的受访者。这项由美国国家科学基金会（SES-030318800）资助的全国电话抽样调查最初于2003年底和2004年初进行。第一轮的调查共有1583人参与。然后，他们在2004年初（2月至6月）对研究中的所有白人（N= 1229）进行了重新访谈，并获得了868名非西班牙裔、非亚裔白人的完整访谈。第二波访谈只针对白人，目的是对他们的种族态度进行非常详细的评估。这两次访谈提供了详细了解受访者的意识形态价值观，对政府的看法，最重要的是，他们的种族态度和信仰的一些措施。在新的采访中，他们将重点关注对卡特里娜灾难的反应：对受害者的态度，对政府表现的评估，以及对援助受害者和重建新奥尔良的政策的支持。与典型的横断面民意调查相比，这种研究设计使得对种族态度的政治影响进行更微妙的探索成为可能。因此，研究人员可以很好地评估种族态度在解释美国人对灾难的反应时所产生的公开的和更微妙的政治影响。更广泛的影响：从更广泛的角度来看，本研究将扩展政策制定者对公众如何应对灾害和政府如何应对此类事件的理解。这项研究还将提供证据，证明受害者的种族和阶级在多大程度上影响了公众对政府应对各种灾难的支持。对这场飓风的主要受害者是穷人和黑人，任何负面反应都可能严重破坏重建新奥尔良和援助当地居民的努力。对飓风受害者的看法也可能影响到人们对政府的信任程度，这种信任已经被新奥尔良的救援工作破坏了。一些民意调查显示，人们对政府未来在飓风过后处理灾难的能力存在一些不信任。任何给定的灾难在多大程度上削弱了人们对政府的信心，也可能取决于受灾公民对阶级和种族背景的看法。

Objectives and Intellectual Merit: This study examines the political consequences of the Hurricane Katrina disaster. With estimates of disaster relief and rebuilding costs mounting to over $200 billion, only strong and sustained public support for disaster victims and the government will provide the necessary political capital to ensure funds needed for the restoration effort. However, in the aftermath of the hurricane, Americans report diminished trust in government, especially in the ability of government to deal with natural disasters and possible future terrorism. And there is increasing debate about the best way for the government to pay for reconstruction efforts. Ultimately, Katrina's long-term political consequences will depend to a large degree on the underpinnings of public reactions to the disaster and its victims, views which are currently far from uniform. Some Americans continue to trust the government while others do not. Some wish to see foreign and domestic spending reduced while others want to postpone tax cuts. Some view race and class as defining factors in the human and social disaster in New Orleans, others reject such reasoning. The investigators focus specifically on Americans' beliefs about race as a possible defining factor in understanding public reactions to the government's obligation to disaster victims and its performance in handling relief efforts. A great deal of research has shown that divergent beliefs about race and the origins of racial inequities are a powerful source of division among Americans concerning government social welfare policy, anti-poverty programs, and an array of government assistance programs very generally. News media coverage of the Katrina disaster has made clear that poor, African-Americans dominated the ranks of those initially left behind in New Orleans. To more fully assess the possibly divisive role of racial attitudes in conditioning responses to government relief efforts in response to Katrina, the researchers extend an ongoing NSF-funded research project into Americans' racial attitudes. Specifically, they re-interview respondents included in the American Racial Opinion Survey (AROS). The survey is based on a national telephone sample conducted initially in late 2003 and early 2004, funded by the National Science Foundation (SES-030318800). The first wave of the interview was conducted with 1,583 individuals. They then attempted re-interviews with all whites in the study (N=1,229) in early 2004 (February till June), and obtained completed interviews with 868 non-Hispanic, non-Asian whites. The second wave interview focused exclusively on whites in order to obtain very detailed assessment of their racial attitudes. The two interviews provide a detailed understanding of the respondents' ideological values, views of government, and, most importantly, a number of measures of their racial attitudes and beliefs. In the new interviews they will focus on responses to the Katrina disaster: attitudes toward the victims, assessments of the government's performance, and support for policies to assist the victims and rebuild New Orleans. The research design makes possible a more subtle exploration of the political effects of racial attitudes than in the typical cross-sectional public opinion survey. As a consequence, the researchers are well positioned to assess both overt and more subtle political effects of racial attitudes in accounting for American responses to the disaster. Broader Impact: From a broader perspective, this research will extend policy makers' understanding of how the public responds to disasters and government efforts to deal with such events. The study will also provide evidence on the extent to which victims' race and class shapes public support for government efforts to respond to various kinds of disasters. Efforts to rebuild New Orleans and assist its residents may be seriously undermined by any negative reactions to the hurricane's predominantly poor and black victims. Views of the hurricane's victims may also affect the degree to which trust in government has been undermined by the relief effort in New Orleans. A number of polls have reported some mistrust in government's future ability to handle disasters in the aftermath of the hurricane. The extent to which any given disaster undermines faith in government may also depend on perceptions of the class and racial background of affected citizens.