Dynamics of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

该项目继续先前的研究，以阐明热带季节内振荡的机制，也被称为马登-朱利安振荡。对这种振荡的成功的动力预报可能会弥合中期天气预报和季节性气候预报之间的差距。这项研究将研究控制北方夏季季节内振荡的基本物理因素，并试图了解其与海-气相互作用和夏季平均降水量的关系。还将注意解释为什么赤道东印度洋是放大季节内振荡的首选区域。诊断和模拟研究都得到长期NCEP再分析数据和高分辨率卫星数据的补充；这些数据将用于验证多模式集合模拟。这项研究的主题被社会各界认为是重要的，可能导致更好的中期预报和更好的厄尔尼诺预报，同时对贫穷国家产生积极影响，这些国家将从改进中期到季节性预报中受益匪浅。基于P.I.S丰富的出版史，预计这项研究的成果将通过会议和在国际公认的科学期刊上发表的文章来传播。

This project continues prior research to elucidate mechanisms responsible for the tropical intraseasonal oscillation, also known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Successful dynamical forecasts of this oscillation may bridge the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal climate prediction. This study will examine the underlying physics controlling the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation and attempt to understanding its relationship to air-sea interactions and summer mean precipitation. Attention will also be given to explaining why the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean is a preferred region for amplification of the intraseasonal oscillation. Both diagnostic and modeling studies are supplemented by long-term NCEP reanalysis data and high-resolution satellite data; these will be used to validate the multi-model ensemble simulations.The subject of the research is considered important by the community, and may lead to better medium-range forecasts and better forecasts of El Nino, while making a positive impact on poor countries which would benefit greatly from improved medium-range to seasonal forecasts. Based on the P.I.'s prolific publishing history, it is expected that the results of this research will be disseminated via meetings and publications in internationally-recognized scientific journals.