Modeling the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System

这个项目将检验一个假设，即全球年代际变率的很大一部分是由热带太平洋内部的变化引起的。耦合热带太平洋气候系统的一个中间模式将用于检验过去120年观测到的年代际气候变化的可预测性。如果成功，这项技术将被推广到预测厄尔尼诺南方涛动的开始。更广泛的影响：一名研究生将获得该项目的支持。这项工作有望加强哥伦比亚大学对有前途的科学家的教育和培训。预计这些结果将通过增强我们对年代际气候变率的理解，使科学界和整个社会受益。

This project will test the hypothesis that a significant proportion of global decadal variability arises from variations within the tropical Pacific Ocean. An intermediate model of the coupled tropical Pacific climate system will be used to examine the predictability of the decadal climate shifts observed over the past 120 years. If successful, this technique will be extended to predict the onset of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.Broader Impacts:One graduate student will receive support from this project. The work is expected to enhance the education and training of up-and-coming scientists at Columbia University. The results are expected to benefit the scientific community and society in general by enhancing our understanding of climate variability on decadal timescales.