Economic Incentives and Family Formation

如果要把婚姻激励作为改善美国家庭福利的政策工具，就有必要更好地了解个人是如何选择他们的婚姻状况的。从取消“婚姻税”到婚姻法，再到同性婚姻和家庭伴侣福利，解决婚姻和幸福之间联系的政策倡议需要对推动联盟形成决定的力量有深刻的理解。然而，我们还不知道这些决定在多大程度上受到所得税和其他可以被政策改变的经济因素的影响，以及在多大程度上受到家庭背景、态度和其他不太容易被操纵的因素的影响。这项研究将提供关于家庭形成的决定因素的新证据，重点是法律赋予已婚夫妇的经济收益和损失。结婚后，个人通常会看到所得税负担和福利待遇的变化，通过配偶的雇主获得健康保险，并受到州离婚法的约束。这项研究将确定这些得失是否是决定结婚而不是同居或保持单身的重要因素。为了确定这些影响，将在1979年全国青年纵向调查中跟踪调查对象婚姻状态之间的转变。将收集各州所得税法、离婚和财产法、福利计划等参数的数据；这些数据将用于为每个人或夫妇分配与每个婚姻状况相关的“预期”经济价值。回归分析将是本研究的主要方法。不仅要考虑这些法律规定的因素，还要考虑种族、学校教育、家庭背景、孩子和环境特征，分析将确定每个因素如何影响婚姻状态之间的转变。

If marriage incentives are to be used as policy tools for improving the welfare of American families, it is necessary to gain a better understanding of how individuals choose their marital status. From elimination of the "marriage tax" to covenant marriage laws to gay marriage and domestic partner benefits, policy initiatives that address the link between marriage and well-being require a solid understanding of the forces that drive union-forming decisions. However, we do not yet know the extent to which these decisions are affected by income taxes and other economic factors that can be altered by policy, and the extent to which they are determined by family background, attitudes, and other factors that are less readily manipulated.This research will provide new evidence on the determinants of family formation, with an emphasis on economic gains and losses conferred by law on married couples. Upon marrying, individuals often see changes in their income tax burdens and welfare benefits, gain health insurance through their spouse's employer, and become bound by state divorce law. The study will determine whether such gains and losses are important determinants of the decision to marry rather than cohabit or remain single. To identify these effects, transitions between marital states will be tracked for respondents in the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Data will be collected on the parameters of each state's income tax laws, divorce and property rights laws, welfare programs, etc.; these data will be used to assign each individual or couple the "expected" financial value associated with each marital status. Regression analysis will be the main methodology for this research. By considering not only these legally mandated factors but also race, schooling, family background, children, and environmental characteristics, the analysis will determine how each factor affects transitions between marital states.