Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Party System Collapse in South America: Voters, Party Organizations, and Adaptation

在委内瑞拉和秘鲁，传统的政党制度自1980年以来已经崩溃。这两个事件，加上1990年代意大利和加拿大政党制度的变化，可能是近代民主历史上最引人注目的政党制度变化。在阿根廷，两个主要政党中的一个也同样垮台了，但另一个却幸存了下来。在其他许多拉美国家，这种政党制度危机并没有发生。这个项目将试图解释这些截然不同的结果的社会和政治根源。 本项目的第一阶段探讨了拉丁美洲政党制度危机的选举基础或需求方，目的是区分选举波动性高和选民对政党制度极度不满的国家，如阿根廷、秘鲁和委内瑞拉，以及没有经历如此严重的政党制度危机的国家，如智利和哥斯达黎加。由于这部分研究将通过分析现有的宏观政治和经济指标以及调查数据来检验有关投票行为的假设，因此不需要大量的实地调查。事实上，根据委内瑞拉西蒙玻利瓦尔大学一个主要档案馆的数据，该项目的这一部分已经取得了一些进展。初步调查结果表明，选民和传统政党之间的政策分歧，而不是对腐败或经济无能的看法，一直是政党制度危机背后的驱动力。该项目的第二部分将研究政党制度崩溃的供应方：阿根廷、秘鲁和委内瑞拉的每个主要政党如何应对涉及政党战略与选民需求不匹配的危机，重点是政党领导人的决策。本项目将利用实地调查收集必要的数据，分析组织、政党适应和每个政党选举成功之间不断变化的关系。 分析将集中在为什么这些国家的大多数主要政党未能适应选民的要求，因此失去了选举relevance.as以及为什么阿根廷的庇隆党能够适应的问题。具体而言，统计时间序列分析结合分析每个国家不同地理子区域的选举和政党变化将有助于区分政党适应失败的主要原因：政党决策渠道的过度官僚化，政党与社会组织（特别是工会）的联系过于制度化，以及从动员的选区转移的机会成本。 由美国国家科学基金会资助的研究的主要组成部分是在三个重点国家的地理子单位的随机样本中构建一个关于社会经济特征，选举行为和政党组织的数据集。该数据集将利用对当地政党精英的新调查，人口普查数据，投票数据和其他来源，将用于测试本提案中讨论的理论。 更广泛的影响 该项目将为几名南美社会科学研究生提供党内精英调查方面的培训和经验。此外，在适当的时候，这项研究的结果将通过大众媒体和学术期刊公布。这可能有助于公民和政治领导人更好地了解每个国家当前冲突的性质和根源。

In Venezuela and Peru, the traditional party systems have collapsed since 1980. These two events, together with changes in the Italian and Canadian party systems during the 1990.s, are probably the most dramatic party system changes in recent democratic history. In Argentina, one of the two main parties has likewise collapsed, but the other has survived. In many other Latin American countries, such party system crises have not occurred. This project will seek to explain the social and political origins of these contrasting outcomes. The first stage of this project explores the electoral basis, or demand side, of the party system crises in Latin America, with the goal of distinguishing countries with high electoral volatility and deep voter dissatisfaction with the party system, such as Argentina, Peru, and Venezuela, from countries that did not experience such severe party system crises, like Chile and Costa Rica. Because this part of the research will test hypotheses about voting behavior by analyzing existing macro-political and .economic indicators, as well as survey data, it does not require substantial fieldwork. Indeed, based on data from a major archive at the Universidad de Simon Bolivar in Venezuela, some progress has already been made on this component of the project. Initial findings suggest that policy divergence between voters and the traditional parties, rather than perceptions of corruption or economic incompetence, has been the driving force behind the party system crises. A second part of the project will examine the supply side of party system collapse: how each of the major political parties in Argentina, Peru, and Venezuela responded to crises involving a mismatch between party strategies and voter demands, focusing on decision-making by party leaders. This project will use fieldwork to collect the data necessary for an analysis of the evolving relationships among organization, party adaptation, and electoral success for each party. The analysis will focus on the question of why most of the major political parties in these countries failed to adapt to voter demands and therefore lost electoral relevance.as well as why the Peronist Party in Argentina was able to adapt. Specifically, statistical time-series analysis combined with analysis of electoral and party variation in different geographical subunits of each country will help distinguish among the major explanations for failed party adaptation: over-bureaucratization of party decision-making channels, over-institutionalization of party links to social organizations (especially unions), and the opportunity costs of shifting away from mobilized constituencies. The primary component of the research to be funded by the National Science Foundation is the construction of a dataset on socioeconomic characteristics, electoral behavior, and party organization in a random sample of geographic subunits of each of the three focus countries. This dataset, which will draw on a new survey of local party elites, census data, voting data, and other sources, will be used to test the theories discussed in this proposal. Broader Impacts This project will give several South American social science graduate students training and experience in party elite surveying. Furthermore, when appropriate, the results from this research will be made public, through the popular press in addition to academic journals. This may help citizens and political leaders better understand the nature and origins of current conflicts in each country.