Explaining Very Low Fertility

近年来，世界上许多较富裕国家的生育率急剧下降，导致生育率如此之低，以至于在没有大规模人口迁入的情况下，它们可能会大幅减少国家人口，并导致严重的人口失衡。这些反过来又会产生重大的经济影响，尤其是人口迅速老龄化的前景，即处于工作年龄的人口比例越来越小。这个项目研究了当代生育率下降的最极端的例子之一，意大利的案例，采用了一种创新的方法，将人类学家、社会学家和人口学家聚集在一起。意大利的案例特别具有启发性，因为它似乎与当前关于导致极低生育率的条件的理论相矛盾。这些倾向于将生育率极低归因于女性外出工作的影响(但在意大利，女性外出工作的比率仍然相对较低)，或者是由于价值观的变化，而不是以家庭为中心的价值观(然而，所有人都认为意大利是西方最以家庭为中心的社会之一)。实地调查将在意大利全国四个城市进行，结合参与者观察和采访，旨在揭示目前生育决定是如何做出的。与此同时，将对意大利主要的全国性社会调查进行审查，以检验现有的理论，并帮助更好地理解导致极低生育率的因素。这一新知识的更广泛影响将是让公民和政府了解世界上较富裕国家的生育率如此之低，以至于对国民福祉构成重大经济威胁的情况。各国政府一直在寻求措施，以确保生育率保持在足够高的水平，以防止人口下降，但效果参差不齐。该项目将帮助确定在防止人口下降方面最有可能取得成功的方法。

The sharp decline in fertility in many of the world's wealthier countries in recent years has led to reproduction rates that are so low that, in the absence of massive in-migration, they threaten to dramatically reduce national populations and to lead to severe demographic imbalances. These in turn have major economic implications, not least the prospect of a rapidly aging population in which a smaller and smaller proportion of the population is of working age. This project examines one of the most extreme instances of contemporary fertility decline, the case of Italy, by employing an innovative approach bringing together anthropologists, sociologists, and demographers. The Italian case is particularly instructive because it appears to contradict current theories of the conditions that promote very low fertility. These tend to attribute very low fertility either to the impact of women working outside the home (yet in Italy rates of women's work outside the home remain relatively low) or to changes in values away from those centered on the family (yet Italy is by all accounts one of the most heavily family-centered societies in the west). Fieldwork is to be conducted in four Italian cities spread throughout the country, combining participant observation and interviewing, aimed at shedding light on how fertility decisions are currently being made. At the same time, major national Italian social surveys are to be examined to test existing theories and to help formulate a better understanding of the forces that lead to very low fertility. The broader impact of this new knowledge will be to inform citizens and governments of the circumstances in which the world's wealthier countries experience fertility so low that it produces a major economic threat to national well-being. Governments have, with mixed success, sought measures to ensure that fertility remains high enough to prevent such population decline. This project will help identify what approaches are likely to be most successful in preventing population decline.