CAREER: Scale-independent Measures and Prediction of Space Weather

该项目将磁暴的统计性质和预测研究与大学生和K-12教师的教育内容结合起来。现有的风暴预报系统在全球范围内做得很好，但没有考虑到局部的变化。由于磁层-电离层系统的耦合产生了依赖于当地时间和纬度的地球空间和地面磁场变化，因此对局部变化的理解尤为重要。本文将研究几个不同的子主题：(1)地基磁强计时间序列的分形和多重分形特征；(2)确定非风暴时间与风暴时间动力学尺度行为的特征差异；(3)空间分离磁强计的时空统计变化与磁暴距离的关系。对于问题(1)，分析技术将包括单分形重标范围、去趋势波动和多重分形小波分析。这些方法是合适的，因为它们考虑到磁力计测量的非常高的分辨率，以及这些数据的间歇性，非高斯和非平稳特征。对于问题(2)，将根据风暴阶段进行分析。这将发展通过非线性统计的变化来确定风暴发生的方法。问题(3)将提供一种方法，将风暴预测扩展到没有观测站的地方，并描绘出整体（地面）风暴行为的图景。教育计划将包括TEACHSPACE和Project LAUNCH计划。这些项目解决了提高人们对科学和工程教育兴趣的需要，但也解决了少数民族和传统上得不到充分教育的学生在数学和科学成就方面的差距。该项目将重点为K-12教师举办讲习班。私家侦探将参与举办关于空间科学的讲习班和讲座，以及开发实验室实验和教学材料。

This project combines research on the statistical nature and prediction of magnetic storms with educational components for both university students and K-12 teachers. Existing storm prediction systems do a good job on global scales but do not account for local variability. An understanding of local variations is particularly important since coupling of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system produces geospace and ground magnetic variations that depend on both local time and latitude. Several different subtopics will be examined: (1) fractal and multi-fractal characteristics of ground-based magnetometer time-series; (2) determination of characteristic differences in the scaling behavior between non-storm time and storm time dynamics; (3) the spatiotemporal statistical variations, from spatially separated magnetometers, as a function of proximity to a magnetic storm. For problem (1) the analysis techniques will include mono-fractal rescaled range, detrended fluctuation, and multi-fractal wavelet analyses. These approaches are appropriate since they take into account the very high resolution of magnetometer measurements, and also the intermittent, non-Gaussian, and nonstationary character of these data. For problem (2), analyses will be performed in terms of storm phases. This will develop methods to determine storm onsets via variations in nonlinear statistics. Problem (3) will provide a way to extend storm predictions to locations where there are no observing stations, and to paint a picture of overall (ground-based) storm behavior.The educational initiatives will include the TEACHSPACE and Project LAUNCH programs. These programs address the need to increase interest in science and engineering education, but also the disparity in mathematics and science achievement in minority and traditionally underserved students. The project will focus on workshops for K-12 teachers. The P.I. will be involved in the delivery of workshops and lectures on space science, and development of laboratory experiments and instructional materials.