Collaborative Research: Labor Mobility, Relative Wages and the Growth of the Service Sector

在过去50年里，美国经济最显著的变化之一就是服务业的增长。1950年，46%的工人受雇于服务业，到1970年，这一数字上升到64%，到2000年上升到76%。在此期间，服务工人与商品工人的相对工资基本保持不变。1968年至1991年间，服务部门相对于商品部门的平均实际时薪介于。88 . to。虽然在90年代有一些上升的趋势。除了就业方面的这些重大部门变化之外，按性别和教育程度划分的劳动力构成也发生了显著变化。从1968年到2000年，女性工人提供的年总工作时间的比例从28%稳步上升到42%。同样，在同一时期，完成教育的平均水平增加了大约2年；高中毕业生的比例从一半多一点增加到80%以上，大学毕业生的比例从10%增加到25%。虽然按部门划分的相对工资变动相对较小，但按教育程度和性别划分的变化更为明显。1980年前后，男女时薪比开始稳步上升。61到大约。90年代中期是75岁。大学毕业生与高中毕业生的时薪之比也从1980年的1.4稳步上升到1995年的1.75。这项建议的总论点是，在部门就业、按教育和性别划分的劳动力构成以及工资模式方面的这些变化都是相互关联的现象。文献通常是孤立地处理这些问题。目标是指定和估计美国经济的竞争性多部门一般均衡模型，该模型结合了文献中假设的导致这些变化的需求和供给因素，以便更好地理解其根本原因。该模型假设现货市场竞争均衡。它建立在前人工作的悠久传统之上。它将Heckman和Sedlacek（1985）在存在技能异质性的情况下的部门选择静态模型扩展到动态选择设置，采用Keane和Wolpin（1997）的部分均衡动态学校教育和职业选择框架，并扩展了Lee（2001）和Heckman， Lochner和Taber（1998）的一般均衡公式，以允许部门选择和总体冲击。该模型将用于解决以下问题。1 .定量评估服务部门增长中单独的需求和供应因素的相对重要性，以及观察到的部门间工资差异的持续存在。定量评估需求因素和供给因素在解释教育程度提高和大学工资溢价中的相对重要性定量评估需求和供给因素在解释女性就业增加和性别工资差距缩小方面的相对重要性。更广泛的影响：这项研究将通过在学术期刊上的出版物和在诸如美国经济学会和计量经济学会年会等会议上的演讲来传播。研究结果，因为它们与理解技术变革的作用和技能获得的决定因素有关，将具有广泛的社会利益和价值。

Among the most striking changes in the U.S. economy over the past 50 yearshas been the growth in the service sector. In 1950, 46 percent of workers were employed in the service sector, by 1970 that figure had risen to 64 percent and by 2000 to 76 percent. Over this period, the relative wage of service workers to goods workers has remained roughly constant. Between 1968 and 1991 the average real hourly wage in the service sector relative to that in the goods sector ranged from .88 to .91, although there has been some upward trend in the 1990's. In addition to these large sectoral changes in employment, the composition of the workforce by gender and education have also changed markedly. Between 1968 and 2000, the proportion of total annual hours worked supplied by female workers increased steadily from 28 to 42 percent. Similarly, over the same period the mean level of completed schooling has increased by about 2 years; the proportion of high school graduates increased from a little over a half to over 80 percent and the proportion of college graduates from 10 to 25 percent. While movements in relative wages by sector were relatively small, changes by education and by gender have been more pronounced. The female to male hourly wage ratio began a steady rise around 1980 from about .61 to about .75 in the mid-90's. The ratio of the hourly wage of college graduates to high school graduates similarly rose steadily from1.4 in 1980 to 1.75 by 1995. The general thesis of this proposal is that these changes, in sectoral employment, in the composition of the workforce by education and gender, and in the pattern of wages are all related phenomena. The literature had generally treated these in isolation. The goal is to specify and estimate a competitive multi-sector general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy that incorporates the demand and supply factors postulated in the literature to have been responsible for these changes in order to understand better their fundamental causes. The model assumes a spot-market competitive equilibrium. It builds on a long tradition of prior work. It extends Heckman and Sedlacek's (1985) static model of sectoral choice in the presence of skill heterogeneity to a dynamic choice setting, adopts the partial equilibrium dynamic schooling and occupational choice framework of Keane and Wolpin (1997), and extends the general equilibrium formulations of Lee (2001) and Heckman, Lochner and Taber (1998) to allow for sectoral choice and aggregate shocks. The model will be used to address the following issues.1. To quantitatively assess the relative importance of the separate demand and supply factors inthe growth of the service sector and the observed persistence in inter-sectoral wage differentials.2. To quantitatively assess the relative importance of demand and supply factors in explainingincreased education and the college wage premium.3 To quantitatively assess the relative importance of demand and supply factors in explainingincreased female employment and the narrowing of the gender wage gap.Broader Impact: The research will be disseminated through publications in academic journalsand through presentations at conferences such as the annual meetings of American Economic Association and the Econometric Society. The research findings, as they pertain to understanding the role of technical change and the determinants of skill acquisition, will be of broad societal interest and value.