Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Reconstructions for the Late Eighteenth and Early Nineteenth Centuries

该奖项提供资金，以支持收集和评估从现在到1851年左右大西洋盆地的现代热带气旋记录。尽管目前对大西洋飓风变动性的理解是基于现代记录的，但为了改进飓风预测，评估飓风的陆地降落概率和周期性，以及将热带气旋活动与气候变化的不同强迫机制联系起来，更长的时间视角将证明是无价的。突出的年际和年代际气候强迫机制的特征可能随时间而不同。来自不同殖民地档案馆的大量高分辨率文献数据可以追溯到几个世纪以前，但尚未被认真地用于古飓风重建。这种高分辨率的来源包括早期仪器记录、船舶日志、日记和报纸等记录。研究人员将开展一项全面的工作，以每日到次日的分辨率重建大西洋盆地热带气旋活动，从18世纪开始：1)从早期的报纸、船舶日志、日记和早期仪器记录中重建大西洋盆地热带气旋的年度计数和轨迹，重点是1800-1850年期间。2)重建具有丰富文献记录的选定地点自18世纪中期以来热带气旋登陆的连续时间序列。这些地点是北卡罗来纳州、佐治亚州、佛罗里达州东北部、路易斯安那州南部、佛罗里达州狭长地带、马萨诸塞州东部、巴哈马群岛和百慕大群岛。3)通过检查所有可用的仪器、文献、4)研究重建的热带气旋活动与气候变化强迫因子之间的关系。研究人员将研究厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）、北大西洋涛动（NAO）和温盐环流如何通过整合古气候重建（例如，来自树木年轮、珊瑚）和古飓风重建来影响热带气旋活动。研究结果将关系到海岸带科学家和规划者、栖息地恢复组织、土地管理者、管理风险的企业以及提供长期历史气候分析的沿海财产所有者的利益。该项目还将为本科生和研究生提供一个独特的学习和培训机会。

This award provides funds to support the collection and evaluation of modern tropical cyclone records from the Atlantic Basin from the present to around 1851. Despite the current understanding of Atlantic hurricane variability based on the modern record, a longer temporal perspective would prove invaluable in order to improve hurricane prediction, assess land falling probabilities and periodicities of hurricanes, and relate tropical cyclone activity to different forcing mechanisms of climatic change. The characteristics of prominent interannual and decadal climatic forcing mechanisms likely differed through time. Vast amounts of high-resolution documentary data from different colonial archives extending back several centuries have not yet been seriously utilized for paleo-hurricane reconstruction. This high-resolution source consists of records such as early instrumental records, ship logs, diaries, and newspapers. The researchers will launch a comprehensive effort to reconstruct Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone activity, at daily to sub-daily resolution, from the eighteenth century to:1) reconstruct annual counts and tracks of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones from early newspapers, ship logbooks, diaries, and early instrumental records, with an emphasis on the period 1800-1850. 2) reconstruct continuous time series of land falling tropical cyclones for selected locations that possess rich documentary records back to the mid 1700s. These locations are North Carolina, Georgia, North East Florida, Southern Louisiana, the Florida Panhandle, eastern Massachusetts, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. 3) reconstruct the synoptic-scale circulation patterns for selected extreme active land falling years in the Atlantic Basin by examining all available instrumental, documentary, and colonial ship logbook archives over eastern North America and the western Atlantic. 4) examine the relationships between the reconstructed tropical cyclone activity with forcing factors of climatic change. The researchers will examine how El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the thermohaline circulation affect tropical cyclone activity by integrating paleoclimatic reconstructions (e.g., from tree-rings, corals) with paleo-hurricane reconstructions. The results of the research will be relevant to the interests of coastal zone scientists and planners, habitat restoration groups, land managers businesses concerned with managing risk, and coastal property owners in providing long-term historical climate analyses. The project will also provide a unique learning and training opportunity for undergraduate and graduate students.