Doctoral Dissertation Research: Exploring the Impact of Institutional Placement on the Recidivism of Delinquent Youth

“探索机构安置对犯罪青少年累犯率的影响”项目摘要：本研究以纽约市少年犯为样本，考察了机构安置(监禁)与累犯率之间的关系。主要的研究问题是：总的来说，安置是增加还是减少青少年的累犯率？除了评估安置对累犯的总体影响外，这项研究还试图找出可能影响这种关系的因素，从而区分受安置影响最大的青少年和不受安置影响的青少年的概况。利用犯罪学文献中采用的理论框架，我提出了关于青少年特征的可检验假设，这些假设可能会影响安置和累犯之间的关系。具体地说，这项研究假设安置的总体效果将因传统社会纽带程度和居住社区而异。研究方法：研究对象为2000年4月至6月在纽约市家庭法院接受处分的736名少年犯。研究对象是通过检查家庭法院日历并确定在此期间接受处置的所有年轻人来选择的。关于受试者的法律和社会史的详细信息已经从纽约市缓刑案件档案中编码，产生了丰富的基线数据集。为了进行分析，基线数据与表明累犯的数据相联系。累犯率是通过查看再次逮捕、因暴力犯罪再次逮捕、因重罪再次逮捕和因暴力重罪再次逮捕的记录来衡量的。预测再次犯罪的随访期为18个月，不包括被监禁的时间。为了检验安置与再犯罪率之间的关系，将使用Logistic回归和生存分析对数据进行分析。在统计模型中，将控制犯罪行为的相关预测因素，以评估安置对再次犯罪模式的影响。为了检验可能制约这种关系的因素的假设，统计模型中将包括表明理论上相关的社会、法律和社区特征的变量。更广泛的影响：除了潜在的学术贡献外，这项研究还可以为青少年司法政策和实践的发展提供信息。它可以帮助法官和其他司法官员对青少年罪犯做出合理的、以经验为导向的决定--特别是在纽约市。它可以为确认和使用风险评估工具，以便对参与法庭的青少年作出拘留和处置决定提供信息。这项研究还可能有助于制定替代安置方案，以满足具有不同个人历史的年轻人的特殊需求。最后，这项研究可以帮助政策制定者了解将青年吸引到少年司法系统的情况，并制定政策，在青年离开后为他们带来最好的结果。

"Exploring the Impact of Institutional Placement on the Recidivism of Delinquent Youth"Project AbstractObjectives: This dissertation examines the relationship between institutional placement (incarceration) and recidivism among a sample of New York City juvenile delinquents. The principal research question is: Does placement, in general, increase or decrease juvenile recidivism? In addition to assessing the aggregate impact of placement on recidivism, this research seeks to discern factors that may condition this relationship, thus differentiating profiles of youth who are most affected by placement, and those who are not. Using theoretical frameworks adopted from criminological literature, I have generated testable hypotheses about characteristics of youth that may affect the relationship between placement and recidivism. Specifically, this research hypothesizes that the overall effect of placement will vary by degree of conventional social bonding and neighborhood of residence. Thus, this project will contribute to scholarship on juvenile offending, court processing, sentencing practices, and criminological theory.Research Methods: Research subjects are 736 juvenile delinquents who received a disposition in New York City family courts between April and June of 2000. Study subjects were selected by examining family court calendars and identifying all youth who received a disposition during this period. Detailed information about subjects' legal and social histories has been coded from New York City Department of Probation case files, producing a rich baseline dataset. In order to conduct analyses, baseline data are linked to data indicating recidivism. Recidivism is measured by looking at records of re-arrests, re-arrests for violent offenses, re-arrests for felonies, and re-arrests for violent felonies. The follow-up period for predicting recidivism will be eighteen months, not including time spent incarcerated. To examine the relationship between placement and recidivism logistic regression and survival analysis will be used to analyze the data. In statistical models, relevant predictors of criminal behavior will be controlled in order to assess the effect of placement on re-offending patterns. To test hypotheses about factors that may condition this relationship, variables that indicate theoretically relevant social, legal and community characteristics will be included in the statistical models. Broader Impacts: In addition to potential scholarly contributions, this research can inform the development of juvenile justice policies and practices. It can help judges and other justice officials make sound, empirically-led decisions about juvenile delinquents - particularly in New York City. It can inform the validation and use of risk assessment instruments for making detention and disposition decisions for court-involved youth. The research might also aid the development of alternative-to-placement programs which address the particular needs of youth with diverse personal histories. Finally, this research can help policymakers understand the circumstances that draw youth into the juvenile justice system, and produce policies that lead to the best outcomes for youth after they get out.