Cross-sectional Statistical Analyses of Regional Climate Effects: Ricardian Analysis and Extensions

该项目旨在改进使用横断面数据评估区域气候变化对农业影响的方法。首先，德国地区报告的土地租金价格将通过使用高级空间统计的传统李嘉图分析来解释。将首次对不同的地区土壤质量控制方法进行比较。其次，借助多项Logit模型，我们将试图解释德国土地利用结构的气候依赖性，以了解农民如何适应不同的气候环境。第三，将把经过空间调整的区域气候预测纳入传统的李嘉图模型和“结构模型”，以评估气候变化的影响。由于基于李嘉图分析的气候变化影响评估的一个主要缺点是忽视了调整成本，最后将阐述相应的交易成本的类型。根据这一类型学，将分析目前和预测的土地利用模式以及由此产生的适应需要。将确定适应需求和相关费用可能相对重要的区域。

This project aims at the improvement of methods that use cross-sectional data for the assessment of regional climate change impacts on agriculture. Firstly, reported land rental prices of the German districts will be explained by means of traditional Ricardian analysis using advanced spatial statistics. For the first time, different approaches to control for the districts’ soil qualities will be compared. Secondly, relying on multinomial logit models we will try to explain the climate dependency of German land use structures in order to understand how farmers adapt to different climate settings. Thirdly, the impact of climate change will be assessed entering spatially adapted regional climate forecasts into the traditional Ricardian models and into the “structural models”. Since a major shortcoming of climate change impact assessment based on Ricardian analysis consists in its disregard of adjustment costs, finally, a typology of corresponding transaction costs will be elaborated. In the light of this typology present and predicted land use patterns and resulting adaptation needs will be analysed. Regions where the needs to adapt and related costs will be presumably relatively important will be identified.