Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Diversity and Development of Pluralism and Poverty? Government Institutions and the Economic Development of Multiethnic

为什么这么多多民族的社会贫穷？种族多样性是否导致经济不发达？如果是，又是如何导致的？本论文的研究旨在解释为什么如此多的多民族国家是不发达的，以及一些国家是如何设法避免贫困陷阱的。政府机构提供了钥匙。这些机构定义的激励结构决定了种族如何进入或远离政治以及稀缺资源的政治分配：一些机构产生相对良性的结果，而另一些机构则倾向于基于种族身份的零和再分配政治。为了实现这一目标，PI采用了多方法的研究设计。对跨国数据的计量经济学分析将使PI能够在系统层面上对广泛的国家样本测试种族多样性和政府机构的影响。为了探索汇总过程的微观基础，PI将通过精英访谈、人口调查和附带调查的小插曲实验相结合的方式收集黎巴嫩和也门的个人层面数据。本文的研究填补了我们对民族多样性如何影响经济发展的认识上的几个重要空白。它通过扩大我们对政府机构如何疏导、并可能预先预防潜在社会分裂的理解，对政治学做出了贡献。它通过分析将潜在分裂转化为政治竞争的制度是如何加强或稀释潜在分裂的，从而增强了我们对分裂社会中经济发展的理解。最后，该项目可能具有深远的政策影响。就政府机构是潜在的政策杠杆而言，了解它们在不同社会中的运作方式可以帮助决策者选择有助于减轻种族分裂潜在负面影响的机构。就更广泛的影响而言，本文将帮助决策者制定适当的政府反应和制度，以减轻基于种族的政治竞争对经济发展的影响。因此，除了对学术界感兴趣之外，这本书还谈到了种族多元化国家的政府官员以及世界银行（World Bank）和国际货币基金组织（international Monetary Fund）等国际发展机构工作人员所面临的困惑和担忧。更好地了解政府机构在扩大或减少种族多样性对发展的影响方面所起的作用，将有助于制订适当的发展政策。

Why are so many ethnically diverse societies poor? Does ethnic diversity cause economic underdevelopment, and if so, how? This dissertation research seeks to explain why so many ethnically diverse countries are underdeveloped, and how some have managed to avoid the poverty traps in which so many of their peers languish. Government institutions provide the key. The incentive structures defined by these institutions determine how ethnicity is channeled into or away from politics and the political allocation of scarce resources: some institutions produce relatively benign outcomes, while others favor zero-sum redistributive politics based on ethnic identity. To accomplish this goal, the PI employs a multi-method research design. Econometric analysis of cross-national data will allows the PI to test the impact of ethnic diversity and government institutions at the level of the system against a broad sample of countries. To explore the microfoundations of the aggregation process, the PI will collect individual-level data in Lebanon and Yemen via a combination of elite interviews, population surveys, and vignette experiments attached to the surveys. This dissertation research fills several important gaps in our understanding of how ethnic diversity affects economic development. It contributes to political science by expanding our understanding of how government institutions channel, and possibly pre-empt, potential social cleavages. It augments our understanding of economic development in divided societies by analyzing the ways in which latent cleavages are either reinforced or diluted by the institutions that translate them into political competition. Finally, this project has potentially far-reaching policy implications. Insofar as government institutions are potential policy levers, understanding how they function in different societies can help policymakers select institutions that can help mitigate the potentially negative effects of ethnic divisions.In terms of broader impact, this dissertation will help inform policymaker decisions toward appropriate government responses and institutions with the aim of mitigating the impact of ethnically-based political competition on economic development. Hence, beyond its interest to academics, it speaks to the puzzles and concerns facing government officials in ethnically diverse states, as well as those working for international development agencies such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. A better understanding of the role government institutions play in magnifying or reducing the impact of ethnic diversity on development will aid in formulating appropriate devel-opment policy.