New Instrumental-Variables Estimates of the Effects of Schooling and Military Service: Empirical Strategies Using Non-Public-Use Data

该提案概述了依赖1990年和2000年人口普查的非公共使用数据的四个项目。前三个项目涉及与其他数据来源的记录链接。所有工作都将在人口普查局的波士顿和密歇根研究数据中心(RDC)进行。这些项目的目的是使用工具变量(IV)方法来估计四组因果效应：(1)学校教育对劳动力参与率和残疾状况的影响；(2)母亲教育对生育率的影响；(3)学校教育对工资不平等的影响；(4)越南时代退伍军人身份对各种结果的长期影响，包括收入、劳动力参与率和残疾状况。退伍军人身份项目使用抽签号码；学校教育项目使用出生四分之一仪器和大学近距离仪器。由于2000年人口普查的非公开档案中有确切的出生日期，而1990年人口普查的内部档案中有出生年份，所以最近的人口普查档案中有出生四分之一的数据。因此，生日信息可以用来构建2000年出生季度和选秀彩票资格状况的指标，以及1990年第一季度的假人。该项目还计划将1990年和2000年的人口普查文件联系起来，从而为2000年接受调查的1990名受访者生成更详细的生日信息，并使调查人员能够为1990年接受调查的2000名受访者创建与大学相近的工具。最后，这一议程的一部分涉及以生日为基础的战略，为1990年和2000年的人口普查计算1980年式的最高分完成(HGC)变量，因为公共使用的文件只包括绝对的学位证书。这一指责利用了1991年CPS中现有的非公开使用的链接，指向来自社会保障管理局的生日信息。1991年的CPS特别有用，因为它可以用来生成一个包含HGC和分类学校变量的文件(通过链接轮换小组)。学校教育对平均工资的因果效应是劳动经济学中最重要的问题之一。与此同时，人们对学校教育的其他影响越来越感兴趣，包括对劳动力参与率、健康的影响，以及超出平均收入的工资分配特征。例如，许多研究人员试图建立教育和长寿之间的因果联系。该项目使用准实验变量来考察教育对2000年人口普查中老年美国人的劳动力参与率和残疾状况的影响，其中包括6项残疾措施，其中5项是新的。第二个应用重点是教育对生育率的影响。最近一项具有挑衅性的发现是，出生四分之一与生育时机之间没有关系，这表明上学对生育率也没有影响。然而，这些估计依赖于非随机样本和仅来自两个州的数据。该项目利用2000年及更早的人口普查中所有州的随机样本来加强这项调查。第三个申请探索了自1990年以来教育与收入不平等之间的联系的急剧变化。描述性分析表明，与1990年相比，2000年高等教育与不平等的关系要大得多。研究人员计划使用半参数和IV方法来确定这种联系是否是因果关系。最后，阿富汗和伊拉克的冲突重新引起了人们对服兵役的社会和经济后果的兴趣。调查人员计划使用抽奖草稿数字，提供越南时代服务对现在50多岁男性的劳动力参与率和残疾影响的可信估计。广泛影响：该项目将提供改进后的、跨时间可比较的教育变量，这些变量可以在使用1980、1990和2000年人口普查微观数据时使用。它将把出生年份添加到1990年人口普查的内部RDC版本中。它将开发1990年和2000年人口普查微数据文件的链接版本。对于任何对大样本纵向研究感兴趣的研究人员，或者想要将这些重要数据集中的变量组合在一起的研究人员，这个文件都应该被证明是有用的。

This proposal outlines four projects that rely on non-public use data from the 1990 and 2000 censuses. The first three projects involve record linkage with other data sources. All work is to be carried in the Census Bureau's Boston and Michigan Research Data Centers (RDCs). The purpose of these projects is to use instrumental variables (IV) methods to estimate four sets of causal effects:(1) The effect of schooling on labor force participation and disability status; (2) The effect of maternal education on fertility; (3) The effect of schooling on wage inequality; and (4) Long-term effects of Vietnam-era veteran status on a variety of outcomes, including earnings, labor force participation, and disability status. The veteran status project uses draft lottery numbers; the schooling projects use quarter-of-birth instruments and college proximity instruments. Quarter-of-birth instruments are available in recent Census files because of the presence of exact date-of-birth on the non-public use file for the 2000 Census and year of birth on internal files for the 1990 Census. Birthday information can therefore be used to construct indicators of quarter of birth and draft lottery eligibility status in 2000, and a first-quarter dummy in 1990. The project also plans to link the 1990 and 2000 Census files, thereby generating more detailed birthday information for the 1990 respondents who are observed in 2000 and allowing the investigators to create college-proximity instruments for the 2000 respondents who are observed in 1990. Finally, part of this agenda involves a strategy for birthday-based imputation of a 1980-style highest grade completed (HGC) variable for the 1990 and 2000 Censuses since the public use files include only categorical degree receipt. The imputation exploits an existing non-public-use link of the 1991 CPS to birthday information from the Social Security Administration. The 1991 CPS is especially useful because it can be used to produce a file (by linking rotation groups) that contains both HGC and categorical schooling variables.The causal effect of schooling on average wages is one of the most important questions in labor economics. At the same time, interest is growing in other effects of schooling, including effects on labor force participation, health, and features of the wage distribution beyond average earnings. For example, a number of researchers have tried to establish a causal link between education and longevity. This project uses quasi-experimental variation to look at the effects of education on the labor force participation and disability status of older Americans in the 2000 Census, which includes 6 disability measures, 5 of which are new. A second application focuses on the effects of education on fertility. A provocative recent finding is that there is no relation between quarter-of-birth and fertility timing, suggesting that schooling has no effect on fertility either. However, these estimates rely on non-random samples and data from only two states. This project augments this investigation using random samples for all states from the 2000 and earlier Censuses. A third application explores sharp changes in the link between education and income inequality since 1990. Descriptive analysis shows that higher education is associated with much more inequality in 2000 than 1990. The investigators plan to use semi-parametric and IV methods to determine whether this link is causal. Finally, the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq have renewed interest in the social and economic consequences of military service. The investigators plan to use draft lottery numbers to provide credible estimates of the labor force participation and disability effects of Vietnam-era service on men now in their fifties.Broader Impacts: This project will provide improved and intertemporally comparable schooling variables that can be used when working with 1980, 1990, and 2000 Census microdata. It will add Year of Birth to the internal RDC version of the 1990 Census. It will develop a linked version of the 1990 and 2000 Census microdata files. This file should prove useful to any researcher interested in longitudinal research with large samples, or who would like to combine variables across these important data sets.