Travel Time Route Reliability

这项研究的目标是开发模型，提供给定路线的行程时间可靠性估计，作为该路线每段故障概率的函数。最终的产品将是估计O和D之间的旅行时间将在X到Y秒之间的概率的模型，作为路线内需求(假设是给定的)的函数。该项目的目标是：a)开发各种高速公路路段类型(如合并交叉口、分叉交叉口等)的故障概率分布；b)获得作为该路段故障概率函数的每个路段的行程时间分布。C)考虑路段之间的时间和空间相互作用，获得作为每个路段故障概率的函数的路线的行程时间可靠性模型。这些相互作用将使用随机过程技术进行建模。路线选择建模超出了本项目的范围；需求是所开发模型的输入。d)增强研究团队所代表的两个工程系的学生的教育体验：土木工程和工业工程。这将通过在研究的基础上发展联合案例研究和项目来实现。该项目将为改善交通机构的拥堵管理和公路性能监测职能提供工具。这将导致更好地了解路线上拥堵的发生过程，研究结果将有助于交通从业者降低故障(和拥堵)的可能性，并改善交通运营。该项目的研究和教育活动将为教职员工和学生在运筹学、可靠性和交通领域的跨学科合作提供机会。该项目还将提供跨学科研究的机会，并与费城交通管理中心(TMC)的从业者一起参与，该中心将为该项目提供数据。增加费城TMC员工与宾夕法尼亚州立大学教职员工和学生之间的互动将使这两个组织受益，因为他们在实践和艺术状态下交流知识。本项目开发的方法最终可用于规划和设计工作区，在特殊活动(如音乐会、体育赛事等)期间的操作，以及制定紧急疏散计划。

The goal of this research is to develop models that provide travel time reliability estimates for a given route as a function of the probability of breakdown at each segment of the route. The final product will be models to estimate the probability that the travel time between O and D will be between X and Y seconds, as a function of the demands (assumed to be given) within the route. The objectives of the project are to:a) Develop probability of breakdown distributions for various freeway segment types (such as merge junctions, diverge junctions, etc.)b) Obtain travel time distributions for each segment as a function of the probability of breakdown at that segment. c) Obtain travel time reliability models for the route, as a function of the probability of breakdown at each of its segments, considering the temporal and spatial interactions between segments. These interactions will be modeled using stochastic processes techniques. Route choice modeling is outside the scope of this project; demand is an input to the models developed.d) Enhance the educational experience of students in the two engineering departments represented in the research team: civil engineering and industrial engineering. This will be accomplished by developing joint case studies and projects based on the research. This project will provide tools for improving the congestion management and highway performance monitoring functions of transportation agencies. It will result in better understanding the process of congestion occurrence on a route, and the findings will assist transportation practitioners in reducing the probability of breakdown (and congestion) and in improving traffic operations. The research and educational activities of the project will provide opportunities for interdisciplinary collaboration of both faculty and students in the areas of operations research, reliability and transportation. The project will also provide opportunities for interdisciplinary research and involvement with practitioners from the Philadelphia Traffic Management Center (TMC), which will provide data for this project. Increased interactions between the Philadelphia TMC staff and the Penn State faculty and students will benefit both organizations as they exchange knowledge in the state-of-the-practice and state-of-the-art.The methodology developed in this project can ultimately be used in the planning and design of work-zones, operations during special events (such as concerts, athletic events, etc.), and in developing emergency evacuation plans.