CAREER: Field Experiments in Credit, Insurance, and Behavioral Economics

本研究的目的是设计和实施独特的实验方法，以测试发展中国家穷人的金融市场，行为经济学和心理学以及美国的非营利筹款中的理论问题。实地实验旨在揭示个人和企业决策以及市场微观结构的基本要素。本研究包括三个项目，每个项目都受到理论和政策问题的推动：菲律宾的群体与个人责任实验；菲律宾医疗保险的信息不对称实验；以及在美国使用非营利性筹款的心理学和经济学实验。这项研究也有教育的成分。耶鲁大学在社会与政策研究所（一个跨学科单位）的赞助下开设了一门新的博士课程，内容是关于社会科学的实地实验，以及鼓励研究生将实验方法纳入他们的论文工作的实地支持。几个实地实验是专门设计的，以深入了解发展经济学和行为经济学的理论和政策问题。关于发展经济学，已有许多关于发展中国家穷人的金融市场（包括信贷和保险）的理论。然而，相对于这一理论，几乎没有明确的经验证据。特别是对于穷人来说，人们对关键的产品设计问题，如保险费率、责任规则和获得储蓄的途径，是如何影响个人行为的知之甚少。因此，现场实验将被设计来回答几个具体问题，包括：(1)逆向选择是否存在，如果存在，它有多广泛，在菲律宾的医疗保险市场？(2)小额保险的保费需求是否具有弹性？(3)动态激励是否有助于降低保险市场的道德风险？(4)与个人责任相比，集体责任是否有助于执行和监督穷人的贷款合同？另一组实验侧重于行为经济学，具体考察了在现实世界的竞争压力下，心理学和行为经济学发现的重要性：(5)在现实世界的竞争压力下，实验室中有效的心理操纵是否重要？除了所回答的研究问题的智力价值外，这些项目将有助于为研究人员和实践者制定标准和实践，以便使用实地实验方法来测试发展和行为经济学中的重要问题。这项研究还包括行为经济学和发展经济学的重要结合。这项研究考察了心理学的见解如何有助于澄清我们对发展中国家穷人如何做出信贷和储蓄决定的理解。这些信息对于为信贷和储蓄市场制定有效的、改善福利的公共政策至关重要。更广泛的影响：到目前为止，现场实验主要集中在项目评估工作上。在方法论层面上，本研究提出了一系列可以被认为是第二代实验经济学的实验：采用通常在实验室实验中发现的技术和理论基础来激励和设计自然现场实验。这种对现场实验设计中理论的关注是一种新的、不断发展的趋势，可以应用于整个经济学（和其他社会科学）领域。在实践层面上，研究的具体问题对于理解穷人的金融市场和行为经济学很重要。这里寻求的具体知识应该对发展政策制定者，以及寻求金融市场和人类行为的竞争模型的有效性的学术理论家和经验主义者具有启示意义。

The purpose of this study is to design and implement unique experimental methodologies that test theoretical issues in financial markets for the poor in developing countries, behavioral economics and psychology, and non-profit fundraising in the United States. The field experiments are designed to reveal fundamental elements of individual and entrepreneurial decision-making and market microstructure. This study comprises three projects, each motivated by both theoretical and policy issues: a group versus individual liability experiment in the Philippines; an information asymmetry experiment on health insurance in the Philippines; and experiments on psychology and economics using non-profit fundraising in the United States. There is also an educational component of this study. A new doctoral course is developed at Yale University, sponsored by the Institute for Social and Policy Studies (an inter-disciplinary unit), on field experiments in social sciences, as well as field support to encourage graduate students to incorporate experimental methodologies into their dissertation work.Several field experiments are designed specifically to shed insight into both theoretical and policy questions in development economics and behavioral economics. Regarding development economics, there are many existing theories on financial markets (both credit and insurance) for the poor in developing countries. Yet, relative to the theory, there is little clean empirical evidence. Particularly for the poor, little is known about how critical product design issues, such as premium rates, liability rules and access to savings, affect individual behavior. Therefore, field experiments will be designed to answer several specific questions, including: (1) Is adverse selection present, and if so how extensive is it, in health insurance markets in the Philippines? (2) Is demand elastic with respect to premiums for micro-insurance? (3) Do dynamic incentives help to mitigate moral hazard in insurance markets? (4) Does group liability help enforce and monitor lending contracts for the poor, compared to individual liability? Another set of experiments focuses on behavioral economics, specifically examining the importance of finding from psychology and behavioral economics under competitive pressures in the real world: (5) Do psychological manipulations effective in the laboratory matter under competitive pressures in the real world? Aside from the intellectual merit of the research questions being answered, the projects will help develop standards and practices for researchers and practitioners to use field experiment methodologies to test important issues in development and behavioral economics. This study also includes an important combination of behavioral and development economics. The research examines how insights from psychology can help clarify our understanding of how poor individuals in developing countries make credit and savings decisions. Such information is critical for the development of effective, welfare-improving public policies for credit and savings markets.Broader Impacts: Field experiments to date have focused largely on program evaluation work. On a methodological level, this study puts forth a series of experiments that can be thought of as second generation experimental economics: employ the techniques and theoretical underpinning typically found in laboratory experiments to motivate and design natural field experiments. This attention to theory in the design of field experiments is new and growing, and can apply to fields throughout economics (and other social sciences). On a practical level, the specific issues examined are important for understanding financial markets for the poor and behavioral economics. The specific knowledge sought here should have implications for development policymakers, as well as academic theoreticians and empiricists looking for validation of competing models of financial markets and human behavior.