Collaborative Research: The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Cuts: New Estimates Derived from a Narrative Approach

在税收变化对宏观经济影响的几乎每一个方面，经济学家和政治家之间都存在巨大的分歧。这种分歧的一个核心原因是，很难衡量税收变化的宏观经济影响。税收变化的发生有很多原因：有些是因为经济预计会朝着某个方向发展，或者因为支出正在发生变化;另一些是因为哲学或政治原因。利用税收对经济状况或可能影响经济增长的事态发展作出反应的情况来估计税收变化的影响，将导致有偏见或不正确的结果。 该项目将使用大量的叙述性记录的论点背后的税收变化，以确定所有重大税收变化的主要动机，在美国自1946年就业法案的通过。总统的经济报告、预算、总统演讲、国会辩论记录和其他来源将用于构建重大税收变化的记录，包括其规模和性质以及动机。根据这一数据，可以区分为政策制定者认为是为了抵消使经济增长率高于或低于正常水平的因素而进行的调整和其他原因而进行的调整。这些信息将用于分析税制变化的宏观经济影响。我们将研究在税收变化没有使增长恢复正常的情况下产出增长的行为，以提供有关税收变化对短期经济增长影响的大小和时间的证据。这项工作将测试税收变化的特点是否会影响估计的影响。研究还将审查消费和库存等产出组成部分的反应，以更好地了解税收变化对总体活动的传导机制。此外，为了确定没有考虑税收变化的动机是否会导致重要的偏差，将把结果与使用所有税收变化而不仅仅是那些没有使产出增长恢复正常的税收变化所获得的结果进行比较。 该项目还将通过研究税收变化对投资、储蓄、利率和通货膨胀的影响，提供有关税收变化长期影响的证据。例如，研究税收变化对投资的影响将提供证据，证明税收变化可以通过一个渠道影响长期增长。此外，本研究还将通过调查在没有使产出增长恢复正常的税收变化之后的支出行为，来检验减税抑制政府支出的假设。总体税收水平的选择是一个核心的公共政策问题。通过提供关于税收变化影响的新证据，该项目有可能为关于制定总体税收的短期和长期考虑的辩论提供宝贵的投入。就短期而言，关于税收变化对产出影响的规模和时间的证据，对于利用税收变化来实现经济的短期稳定显然至关重要。考虑到经济可能受到突然的重大冲击（例如股票市场崩溃），以及在某些情况下货币政策的效力令人担忧（例如2003-2004年的极低利率环境），利用财政政策实现稳定的可能性尤其紧迫。 关于税收变化影响的证据对于长期问题可能更为重要。减税有助于减少未来政府支出的假设通常是减税的一个关键动机。因此，在思考税收问题时，关于这种影响强度的证据应该是一个重要的考虑因素。更根本的是，税收变化对储蓄和增长的长期影响的证据应该是选择总体税收水平的核心问题。

There is enormous disagreement among both economists and politicians about almost every aspect of the impact of changes in taxes on the macroeconomy. A central reason for this disagreement is that it is very hard to measure the macroeconomic effects of tax changes. Tax changes occur for many reasons: some occur because the economy is predicted to move in some direction or because spending is changing; others occur for philosophical or political reasons. Estimating the effects of tax changes using episodes where taxes are responding to the state of the economy or to developments likely to affect economic growth will lead to biased or incorrect results. This project will use the vast narrative record of the arguments underlying tax changes to determine the primary motivation for all major tax changes in the United States since the passage of the Employment Act of 1946. The Economic Reports of the President, the Budgets, presidential speeches, records of congressional debates, and other sources will be used to construct a record of major tax changes, their size and nature, and their motivation. This record will be used to separate the changes into ones intended to offset factors that policymakers believed were acting to push the economy's growth rate above or below its normal level and ones undertaken for other reasons.This information will be used to analyze the macroeconomic effects of tax changes. The behavior of output growth following tax changes not undertaken to return growth to normal will be examined to provide evidence about the size and timing of the effects of tax changes on short-run economic growth. The work will test whether the characteristics of the tax changes affect the estimated impact. The research will also examine the response of the components of output, such as consumption and inventories, to gain a better understanding of the transmission mechanism of tax changes to aggregate activity. In addition, to determine whether failing to account for the motivations for tax changes leads to important biases, the results will be compared with ones obtained using all tax changes rather than just those not taken to return output growth to normal. The project will also provide evidence about the long-run effects of tax changes by examining their impact on investment, saving, interest rates, and inflation. For example, studying the effects of tax changes on investment will provide evidence about one channel through which they could influence growth over the longer term. Furthermore, the research will test the hypothesis that tax cuts restrain government spending by investigating the behavior of spending following tax changes not taken to return output growth to normal.Broader Impact. The choice of the overall level of taxes is a central public policy issue. By providing new evidence about the effects of tax changes, the project has the potential to provide valuable input into debates about both short-run and long-run considerations in the setting of overall taxes. With regard to the short run, evidence about the size and timing of the output effects of tax changes is clearly essential for the use of tax changes for short-run stabilization of the economy. The possibility of using fiscal policy for stabilization is particularly pressing in view of the risks of sudden major shocks to the economy (such as a stock market crash) and concern about the efficacy of monetary policy in some cases (such as the environment of very low interest rates in 2003-2004). Evidence about the effects of tax changes is probably even more important for long-run issues. The hypothesis that reductions in taxes serve to reduce future government spending is often a key motive for tax cuts. Thus evidence about the strength of this effect should be an important consideration in thinking about taxes. Even more fundamentally, evidence about the long-run impact of tax changes on saving and growth should be a central issue in the choice of the overall level of taxes.