A Century of New GNP Estimates

该项目的目的是创建和分析新的估计 美国1834-1928年的国民生产总值。 作为 第一步，这项研究将涉及广泛分析 这一时期GNP估计的准确性。 初步 研究表明，这些估计大大夸大了 商业周期，因为非常不稳定的生产系列用于 在基准国产总值估计数之间插入。 本研究是 重要的是，它将提供新的见解的性质， 经济周期的原因在过去和现代。 此外，这项研究还将更好地了解如何 随着时间的推移，经济发生了变化， 宏观经济表现。 为了处理现有数据中的过度波动 系列，回归程序将用于转换可用 将零碎的生产数据纳入新的国民生产总值估计数 产品 明确解释波动性的差异 GNP和插值序列之间的关系将产生GNP的估计值 在19世纪和20世纪， 更准确地说。 这一新的数据系列将用于衡量 的经济周期波动，并估计周期性的行为， 这段时间的价格。

The purpose of this project is to create and analyze new estimates of gross national product for the U.S. for the period 1834-1928. As a first step, the study will involve an extensive analysis of the accuracy of current GNP estimates for that period. Preliminary research suggests that the estimates greatly exaggerate the size of business cycles because very volatile production series are used to interpolate between benchmark GNP estimates. This research is important because it will provide new insights into the nature and causes of business cycles both in the past and in the modern era. Furthermore, this study will also provide a better understanding of how the economy has changed over time and how those changes affect macroeconomic performance. In order to deal with the excess volatility in the existing data series, regression procedures will be used to convert available fragments of production data into new estimates of gross national product. Explicitly accounting for the differences in volatility between GNP and the interpolating series will yield estimates of GNP for the 19th and 20th centuries that represent cyclical movements much more accurately. This new data series will be used to measure the size of business cycle fluctuations and to estimate the cyclical behavior of prices over this period.