SGER: Tracking Migratory Behavior of Hurricane Katrina Evacuees, Phase I: Sample Identification, Data Collection & Analysis" (Program Reference Code # 7582)

跟踪卡特里娜飓风撤离者的迁徙行为，第一阶段：样本识别、数据收集和分析--首席调查员：小詹姆斯·H·约翰逊。詹姆斯·R·埃利奥特摘要：卡特里娜飓风导致了美国历史上最大规模的城市疏散，引发了一场关于当代城市化和移民动态的重大、计划外的社会实验。为了更好地了解这些动态，该项目确定了来自新奥尔良的疏散者样本，设计并实施了一项调查，以收集他们短期迁徙行为的数据，并使用收集的数据，以及关于当前和以前社区特征的生态数据，来检验关于迁徙网络以及空间和经济流动性之间的联系的假设。结果将提供关于灾后移徙动态的新信息，并评估这些动态如何以及在多大程度上不同于更常规时期对移徙行为的现有理解。理论贡献将在三个领域特别突出：(A)路径依赖和社会网络在多大程度上预测撤离者的移徙行为；(B)个人的社会经济地位在多大程度上调节这种行为；(C)与集中贫困和社会孤立相关的邻里特征也在多大程度上发挥作用。对这些动态的科学了解，对于州和地方政策制定者预测可能返回受灾地区的疏散人数和类型，以及对于寻求改善应急规划和应对飓风和其他类型灾难(如毁灭性的恐怖袭击或重大工业事故)的联邦政策制定者来说，将是有价值的。

TRACKING MIGRATORY BEHAVIOR OF HURRICANE KATRINA EVACUEES,PHASE I: SAMPLE IDENTIFICATION, DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSISCo-Principal Investigators: James H. Johnson, Jr. James R. Elliott Abstract:Hurricane Katrina led to the largest urban evacuation in U.S. history, triggering a major, unplanned social experiment in the dynamics of contemporary urbanization and migration. To improve understanding of these dynamics, this project identifies a sample of evacuees from New Orleans, designs and implements a survey to collect data on their short-term migratory behavior, and uses the collected data, in conjunction with ecological data on current and prior neighborhood characteristics, to test hypotheses regarding migration networks and links between spatial and economic mobility. Results will provide new information on post-disaster migratory dynamics and assess how and to what extent these dynamics differ from existing understanding of migratory behavior in more routine times. Theoretical contributions will be particularly strong in three areas: (a) the extent to which path-dependence and social networks predict the migratory behavior of evacuees; (b) the extent to which individuals' socioeconomic status mediates this behavior; and (c) the extent to which neighborhood characteristics associated with concentrated poverty and social isolation also play a role. Scientific understanding of these dynamics will be valuable for state and local policymakers anticipating the number and types of evacuees likely to return to the affected area, as well as for federal policymakers seeking to improve emergency planning and response to hurricanes and other types of disasters, such as a devastating terrorist attack or major industrial accident.