Linking Landscape Models of Fire, Vegetation, and Global Climate Change in the Florida Everglades

连接佛罗里达大沼泽地火灾、植被和全球气候变化的景观模型[i]：贝克奇，布莱恩。全球变暖可能通过火灾频率和生态系统特征之间的反馈导致景观的快速转变。火灾发生的频率影响着景观植被的组成。这些变化反过来又影响火灾的频率，因为植被的可燃性变化很大。该项目将研究适应火的植物群落如何促进火灾的发生和蔓延，而不耐火的植物群落如何抑制火灾，除非在极端气象条件下。这项工作将利用植被和火灾的耦合景观模型，结合外部气候驱动因素、火灾-植被反馈和水文，模拟沼泽地生态系统对气候强迫的响应行为。该模式将使用过去半个世纪记录的数据进行参数化，包括ENSO条件、降水、水文、植被和火灾。该项目将扩大我们对气候变化使生态系统跨越生态阈值的可能性的理论认识，从而导致生态系统状态的快速变化。确定这些阈值及其机制将使土地管理者了解可能由全球变暖引起的生态变化，使他们能够更好地保护宝贵的自然资源，如佛罗里达大沼泽地。本项目将支持培养一名理论生态学博士后。

Linking landscape models of fire, vegetation, and global climate change in the Florida EvergladesPI: Beckage, Brian. Institution: University of Vermont DEB-0606801 Global warming may result in the rapid transformation of landscapes through feedbacks between fire frequency and ecosystem characteristics. The frequency of fire affects the composition of vegetation on the landscape. These changes, in turn, affect the frequency of fire, because vegetation varies greatly in flammability. This project will investigate how fire-adapted plant communities facilitate the initiation and spread of fire, while fire-intolerant communities inhibit fire except under extreme meteorological conditions. This work will model the behavior of the Everglades ecosystem in response to climatic forcing using a coupled landscape model of vegetation and fire that incorporates external climatic drivers, fire-vegetation feedbacks, and hydrology. The model will be parameterized using data recorded over the last half century, including ENSO conditions, precipitation, hydrology, vegetation, and fire. This project will broaden our theoretical understanding of the potential for climate change to move ecosystems across ecological thresholds that cause rapid shifts in the state of the ecosystem. Identification of these thresholds and their mechanisms will inform land managers of ecological changes that are likely to result from global warming, enabling them to better protect valuable natural resources such as the Florida Everglades. This project will support the training of a postdoctoral scholar in theoretical ecology.