权益分类	功能权益	普通用户	{{item.name}}会员
{{category.name}}	{{benefitItem.name}}

Optimising multifunctional land-use decisions through robust combined models: a pollination-crop yield-landscape aesthetics case study

通过稳健的组合模型优化多功能土地利用决策：授粉-作物产量-景观美学案例研究

基本信息

批准号：
NE/T004029/1
负责人：
Tom Oliver
金额：
$ 6.39万
依托单位：
University of Reading
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT004029%2F1
关键词：
Optimising multifunctional land use decisions

项目摘要

Making land-use decisions is complicated because there are many competing demands (environmental, social and economic) placed on our landscapes. The decisions we make at small scales can have much larger and longer-term consequences. For instance, in arable landscapes, converting field margins to crop to maximise crop yield in a given field (economic benefit), will reduce pedestrian access beside crops (social benefit) and reduce resources supporting landscape-scale biodiversity (environmental benefit). Lower biodiversity can in turn reduce pollination service and therefore crop yield, not only in the original field, but also in surrounding fields. The consequences of a land-use choice in one field can therefore spread far beyond that field and affect many different benefits. This means that it is essential to assess the impacts of land-use decisions on all of these benefits simultaneously, in order to make the most informed land-use decisions at the landscape scale. Although many statistical models allow us to measure individual benefits in great detail across the landscape, very few combine multiple benefits, and those that do, typically do not consider the feedbacks between different benefits due to their additive model structure. Furthermore, these existing combined models rarely account for the time-dependent aspects of benefits derived, which can be significant for land-use choices such as woodland creation, which takes decades to reach their full biodiversity benefits. Our project will combine physical science expertise in building spatially-explicit time-dependent computer models with expertise in ecology, sociology and economics to develop the first modelling framework that combines multiple interacting landscape-scale benefit models, to identify land-use choices that maximise the ecological, social and economic benefits provided by the landscape over time. The project will use pollinators and the benefits they provide in agricultural landscapes as a case study for model development, because agricultural land-use interventions for supporting pollinators affect environmental (by supporting biodiversity), social (by affecting the scenic quality of farmland), and economic (by determining pollination service to crops) benefits simultaneously. Our model will therefore combine and interlink three individual benefit models - a pollinator abundance biodiversity-benefit model, an aesthetic value social-benefit model and a monetary crop value economic-benefit model - into a single cohesive whole. It will also account for how the benefits provided by interventions such as flower strips and hedgerow creation can change over time. We will test the model on a series of real agricultural landscapes incorporating varying amounts of pollinator interventions to identify the optimum proportions of interventions required to maximise the environmental, social and economic benefits provided by the landscapes over time. The outcomes of this project are directly relevant to designing future UK agri-environment schemes, and we will work with project partners to demonstrate the potential of the combined model framework to inform real-world land-use decisions. The modelling framework can then be expanded in future to include other benefits (e.g. abundance of other species, water quality/quantity etc.) and identify optimum solutions for other land-use systems with competing environmental, social and economic demands (e.g. new developments balancing housing needs with green infrastructure).

做出土地使用决策是复杂的，因为我们的景观有许多相互竞争的需求(环境、社会和经济)。我们在小范围内做出的决定可能会产生更大和更长期的后果。例如，在耕地景观中，将农田边缘转化为作物，以使特定农田的作物产量最大化(经济效益)，将减少作物旁的行人通道(社会效益)，并减少支持景观规模生物多样性的资源(环境效益)。较低的生物多样性反过来会减少授粉服务，从而降低作物产量，不仅在原始田地，而且在周围田地也是如此。因此，在一个领域选择土地使用的后果可能远远超出该领域，并影响到许多不同的利益。这意味着必须同时评估土地利用决定对所有这些利益的影响，以便在景观范围内做出最知情的土地利用决定。尽管许多统计模型允许我们非常详细地衡量各个方面的收益，但很少有模型结合了多个收益，而且那些结合了多个收益的模型通常不考虑不同收益之间的反馈，因为它们的模型结构是相加的。此外，这些现有的组合模型很少考虑到所产生的效益的随时间变化的方面，这可能对土地利用选择具有重要意义，例如创造林地，这需要数十年才能实现其全部的生物多样性效益。我们的项目将把构建空间显式时间依赖计算机模型的物理科学专业知识与生态学、社会学和经济学的专业知识结合起来，开发第一个结合多种相互作用的景观规模效益模型的建模框架，以确定随着时间的推移，景观提供的生态、社会和经济效益最大化的土地利用选择。该项目将使用传粉者及其在农业景观中提供的好处作为模型开发的案例研究，因为支持传粉者的农业土地利用干预措施同时影响环境(通过支持生物多样性)、社会效益(通过影响农田的风景质量)和经济效益(通过确定对农作物的授粉服务)。因此，我们的模型将把三种个体利益模型--传粉者丰富的生物多样性利益模型、审美价值社会利益模型和货币作物价值经济利益模型--结合在一起，形成一个统一的整体。它还将解释花带和树篱营造等干预措施所提供的好处如何随时间而变化。我们将在一系列包含不同数量的传粉者干预措施的真实农业景观上测试该模型，以确定随着时间的推移，使景观提供的环境、社会和经济效益最大化所需的干预措施的最佳比例。该项目的结果与设计未来的英国农业环境计划直接相关，我们将与项目合作伙伴合作，展示组合模式框架的潜力，为现实世界的土地使用决策提供信息。建模框架今后可以扩展到包括其他益处(例如，其他物种的丰度、水质/数量等)。并为环境、社会和经济需求相互竞争的其他土地使用系统确定最佳解决方案(例如，平衡住房需求与绿色基础设施的新开发项目)。