Linking Time and Space Scales of Snowmelt Runoff: Crown of the Continent Hydrologic Observatory

季节积雪在北美西部大多数流域发生的物理、化学和生物过程中起着主导作用。雪是一种天然的蓄水机制，因此是水电生产、灌溉和水产健康的决定因素。积雪融化也触发了生长季，较早的积雪融化似乎启动了夏季景观干燥，加剧了干旱条件，最近加速了重大野火事件的发生频率。目前的方法无法预测(或甚至回溯)以雪水为主的河流流域对自然或人类干扰(包括气候条件的变化)的时空响应，这阻碍了我们充分了解和管理这些流域的能力。需要新的方法来外推复杂地貌上的雪水当量测量，模拟时间和空间的盆地产水量，并预测对当地干扰、区域气候变化和极端事件的生态和水文响应。该项目旨在了解落基山脉北部气候变化、积雪和径流之间的基本关系。所提出的研究方法是基于现有的关于积雪流域的观测和理论；提出了基于过程的研究和水文观测站的设计问题/假设。该研究将使用综合物理和生态模型将三种不同的水文环境联系起来：1)古水文；2)历史水文；3)未来水文。工作计划中的雪部分将侧重于估计当地积雪特征的空间变异性到区域长度尺度，并开发一套时间/空间积雪模型，作为强迫流域模型的输入。将对径流趋势进行分析，以确定仪器记录的变化量和可变性。径流分析将把积雪数据、自动气象站数据和遥感数据与野外水质数据和径流记录相结合，以查看从流域释放水的过程的连续性。强迫/响应的时间和空间尺度将使用综合物理-生态模式系统(RHEESys)来阐明。该模型将被用来模拟仪器时代的流域过程，以及过去对已知特大干旱的水文和生态反应，这些模拟结果将指导模拟这一以雪为主的流域内的未来变化。该项目的广泛影响将在三个领域产生：正规教育；非正规教育；以及代表不足群体的科学体验。蒙大拿大学的学生将参与从研究生到本科生的研究，这项工作的信息将被纳入到私人投资机构教授的众多课程中。由于这项研究的广泛性，它为在正规大学环境中教授跨学科概念和工具提供了巨大的机会。此外，该地区壮观的风景每年吸引至少200万游客。我们将通过在冰川国家公园的公共演讲计划中的演讲、对公园和其他当地教育工作者和翻译的演讲以及积极参与地区性科学和管理会议来接触到这些听众。我们还将推行一项计划，创建和安装关于气候变化和水文循环的解释性展板，从过去的特大干旱到现在和未来的变化。我们还将扩大与南部联盟萨利什-库特奈部落的水文项目和部落学院的工作关系。部落工作人员和学生实习生将参与实地研究和分析。长期目标是开展关于该地区部落土地的联合研究。

0609570MooreThe seasonal snowpack has a dominating role in physical, chemical, and biologicalprocesses occurring in most western North American watersheds. Snow is a natural water storagemechanism and is therefore the determinant of hydroelectric production, irrigation, and aquatichealth. Snowmelt also triggers the growing season, and earlier snowmelt appears to initiatesummer landscape drying, accentuating drought conditions and recently accelerating thefrequency of major wildfire events. The inability of current methods to forecast (or evenbackcast) the temporal and spatial response of snow water dominated river basins to natural orhuman disturbances, including variations in climatic conditions, hinders our ability to fullyunderstand and thus manage these watersheds. New approaches are needed to extrapolate snowwater equivalent measurements over complex landscapes, model temporal and spatial basinwater yields and predict ecologic and hydrologic response to local disturbance, regional climatechange and extreme events. This project aims to understand fundamental relationships betweenclimate change, snowpack, and runoff in the northern Rocky Mountains. The research approachpresented is based on existing observations and theories about snow-dominated watersheds; bothprocess-based research and hydrologic observatory design questions/hypotheses are posed. Theresearch will use integrated physical and ecologic modeling to link three different hydrologicsettings: 1) Paleo-Hydrology; 2) Historical to present hydrology, and; 3) Future Hydrology.The snow component of the work plan will emphasize estimating spatial variability ofsnowpack characteristics at the local to the regional length scale and developing a suite oftime/space snowpack models, as input forcing to watershed models. Runoff trends will beanalyzed with the goal of determining the amount of change and variability of the instrumentalrecords. Runoff analysis will integrate snow data, automatic weather station data, and remotesensed data with field water quality data and runoff records to look at the continuum of processesreleasing water from basins are several scales. Time and space scales of forcing/response will beelucidated using an integrated physical-ecologic model system (RHEESys). The model will beused to simulate watershed processes during the instrumental era, and past hydrologic andecologic responses to known megadroughts, These modeling results will guide simulations offuture change within this snow dominated watershed.Broader ImpactsBroader impacts from this project will be in three areas: formal education; informaleducation; and science experience for under-represented groups. University of Montana studentswill be involved in the research at the graduate to undergraduate levels and information from thiswork will be incorporated into numerous courses taught by the PIs. Because of the broad natureof this research it gives tremendous opportunity for teaching interdisciplinary concepts and toolsin the formal university environment. In addition, the spectacular landscapes of the region drawsat least two million tourists each year. We will reach this audience through presentations withinGlacier National Park's public lecturing program, lectures to Park and other local educators andinterpreters, and active participation with a regional science and management conference. Wewill also pursue a program to create and install interpretative display panels on climate changeand the hydrologic cycle, from past mega-droughts to current and future changes. We will alsoexpand our working relationship with both the Confederated Salish-Kootenai Tribe's hydrologyprogram and tribal college. Tribal staff and student interns will be involved in field research andanalyses. The long-term goal is to develop joint research on Tribal lands within the region.