Doctoral Dissertation Research in DRMS: Local-Level Policy Learning in Response to Extreme Flood Events in the Central Danube River Basin

在过去的十年里，多瑙河流域发生了多次洪水，造成了严重的经济和生态破坏。匈牙利位于多瑙河流域中部地区，历来洪灾风险较高，最近极端洪灾增多。虽然多瑙河流域的国际和国家机构向当地机构提供了应对自然灾害的指导，但与防洪、预防和环境政策有关的环境政策经常在地方和区域一级制定和执行。多瑙河流域中部地方各级机构的环境政策差异很大。本文的研究重点是多瑙河流域地方层面的洪水响应分析。对极端事件的成功应对通常反映了政策学习、信念、态度、行为和目标的演变，以应对新的信息和。为了理解促进政策学习的因素，本研究考察了以下问题：(1)什么因素与观察到的与地方层面的减灾和防洪相关的政策变化和学习有关？(2)科学技术信息在多大程度上影响政策学习？(3)不同的专业论坛和群体决策过程，如流域伙伴关系和流域管理决策过程，以什么方式影响政策学习？我将审查两个多瑙河分流域--蒂萨河和巴尼奥尼亚中部多瑙河--对严重洪灾的反应，这两个分流域在过去十年中经历了该区域一些最极端的洪灾。这项研究包括两个阶段：对流域内的城市进行一次大型的横断面调查，检查(1)过去洪灾的程度，(2)应对洪灾的政策变化和学习，(3)科学技术信息和群体决策过程对政策学习的作用；以及，对三个较小的分集水区进行深入的案例研究。

The Danube River basin has had numerous floods over the past decade, causing high levels of economic and ecological damage. Hungary, situated in the central region of the Danube River basin, historically has had a high level of flood risk exposure and has recently experienced an increase in extreme floods. While international and national institutions in the Danube basin have provided guidance to local institutions in response to natural disasters, environmental policies related to flood protection, prevention, and environmental policies are frequently developed and implemented at the local and regional levels. Environmental policies across local level institutions in the central Danube River basin vary greatly. This dissertation research focuses on the analysis of local level response to floods in the Danube River basin. Successful responses to extreme events often reflect policy learning, the evolution of beliefs, attitudes, behaviors, and goals in response to new information and. To understand factors that promote policy learning, this research examines the following questions: (1) What factors are associated with observed variations in policy change and learning related to flood mitigation and prevention at the local level? (2) To what extent has scientific and technical information affected policy learning? (3) In what ways do different professionalized fora and group decision making processes, such as watershed partnerships and river basin management decision processes, influence policy learning? I will examine responses to severe floods in two Danube River subbasins: the Tisza and the Pannonian Central Danube, subbasins that have experienced some of the most extreme floods in the region over the past decade. The research includes two phases: a large N, cross-sectional survey of cities in the basins examining (1) the extent of past flooding, (2) policy change and learning in response to flooding, and (3) the roles of scientific and technical information and group decision processes influence policy learning; and, in depth case-studies of three smaller sub-catchment areas.