SGER: Precursors for Impending Instability in Power Systems

SGER：电力系统即将发生的不稳定性的前兆Eyad Abed马里兰州大学帕克电力系统正在运行接近其稳定极限，由于持续的趋势，不断增加的电力需求和缺乏扩展的传输容量。在高负荷电力系统中，高级建模和仿真预测的稳定特性与真实的系统的实际稳定性之间存在不匹配。这种不匹配导致了过于乐观的稳定性评估，有时会带来灾难性的后果。该SGER提案的目标是开始开发一种非基于模型的方法，用于真实的检测不确定电力系统不稳定性的接近程度。智力优势：将寻求基于信号的技术来实时检测和监测电力网络在压力条件下的不稳定性。在这项工作中的一个重要工具是不稳定性的前兆的概念，测量系统输出时出现的系统接近其稳定性极限的签名。该方法将被应用到电力系统模型，将用于模拟真实的条件下的稳定裕度评估与不确定模型在应力条件下。更广泛的影响：这一努力的成功不仅在避免电力系统停电方面至关重要，而且在地震预警系统、医疗设备设计（如心脏病发作和大脑癫痫发作的管理）以及政府制定经济政策以避免经济或金融市场中的灾难性事件方面也至关重要。数学建模本身是无法准确地预测在任何这些应用中的不稳定性的开始。

SGER: Precursors for Impending Instability in Power SystemsEyad AbedUniversity of Maryland, College ParkPower systems are being operated closer to their stability limits due to the continuingtrends of increasing power demand and lack of expansion in transmission capacity. There is a mismatch in highly stressed power systems between the stability characteristics predicted by advanced modeling and simulation and the actual stability of the real system. This mismatch results in overly optimistic stability assessment, withsometimes catastrophic consequences. The goal of this SGER proposal is to begin the development of a non-model-based approach to detecting closeness to instability of uncertain power systems in real time. Intellectual Merit: Signal-based techniques will be sought for real-time detection and monitoring of closeness to instability for electric power networks in stressed conditions. An important tool in this work is the concept of precursors for instability, signatures of measured system outputs that appear when a system approaches its stability limits. The methods will be applied to electric power system models which will be used to mimic real conditions of stability margin assessment with uncertain models in stressed conditions. Broader Impact:Success in this effort can be of critical importance not only in power system blackout avoidance, but also in earthquake warning systems, medical device design (such as for management of heart attacks and brain seizures), and development of government economic policy for avoidance of catastrophic events in the economy or in financial markets. Mathematical modeling alone is incapable of accurately predicting the onset of instability in any of these applications.