SGER: DHS and NSF Collaboration: Developing Polls to Test Theories of Radicalization and Potential for Radicalization

恐怖分子是反政府活动的支持者和同情者金字塔的顶端，恐怖主义的威胁可以用金字塔底部同情者和支持者数量的扩张和收缩来衡量。 群体动力学心理学认为，随着来自外群体的威胁增加，内群体的凝聚力，随之而来的是对内群体规范和价值观的支持增加，对内群体领导者的支持和对偏离内群体规范的行为的制裁也增加。 当外部威胁减少或被认为减少时，群体内凝聚力下降，激进群体出现。 民意调查可用于衡量和跟踪反映政治激进化的态度变化。 因此，拟议研究的长期目标是开发一个民意调查系统，跟踪情感、信仰和行为倾向的变化（即，同情和支持恐怖主义），这反过来又提供了一个数据资源，可用于进一步测试有关群体心理学所涉及的动力学的现有理论发展。该提案的直接目标是：开发和测试所需的民意调查项目，启动一个快速周转的民意调查程序，使用这些项目，重点是美国人18-30，并提供一个初步的美国基准调查这些项目。 建议进行国家调查，将采用以前调查的意见项目和为本研究开发的新项目。 第一次调查（2006年）将侧重于项目开发和对政府威胁与活动家反应之间联系的实验评估，并将通过社会科学分时实验（TESS）实施，约有100名受访者，在八种条件下各有17个项目。 第二次调查（2007年）将测试两次快速调查的项目并比较结果，重点是18-30岁的受访者;一次调查将使用RDD（快速数字拨号）抽样，第二次将使用网络调查小组。 第三次调查（2008年）将在重复RDD和小组调查的同时使用改进的项目，因为这些项目被用于美国全国选举调查（ANES）小组的一个浪潮。 民意调查数据将有助于实现制定美国国内恐怖主义预警指标的更广泛目标。

SES- 0651996Clark McCauleyBryn Mawr College Terrorists are the apex of a pyramid of supporters and sympathizers of anti-government activities, and the threat of terrorism can be measured in terms of expansions and contractions in the number of sympathizers and supporters in the base of the pyramid. Group dynamics psychology posits that as threats from an out-group increases, in-group cohesion, with resulting increased support for in-group norms and values, and support for in-group leaders and increased sanction directed at deviates from in-group norms also increases. When external threat declines or is perceived to decline, in-group cohesion declines and radical groups emerge. Public opinions surveys can be used to gauge and track shifts in attitudes reflective of political radicalization. Thus, the longer term goal of the proposed research is to develop a system of public opinion polling that tracks changes in the feelings, beliefs, and behavioral tendencies (i.e., sympathy and support for terrorism) by groups that in turn provides a data resource that can be used to further test existing theoretical developments regarding dynamics involved in group psychology. The immediate objectives of this proposal are to: develop and test the polling items required, initiate a fast-turnaround polling procedure using these items that focuses on Americans 18-30, and provide an initial U.S. benchmark survey for these items. National surveys are proposed that will employ opinion items from previous surveys and new items developed for this research. The first survey (2006), will focus on item development and an experimental assessment of the link between government threat and activist responses and will be implemented via Time-sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences (TESS), with about 100 respondents and 17 items in each of eight conditions. The second survey (2007) will test items and compare results of two fast-turnaround surveys focused on 18-30 year old respondents; one survey will use RDD (rapid digit dialing) sampling and the second will use a web survey panel. The third survey (2008) will use improved items in a repetition of both RDD and panel surveys at the same time as these items are used in one wave of the American National Election Survey (ANES) Panel. The public opinion polling data will contribute to the broader objective of developing early warning indicators of domestic terrorism in the U.S.