COLLABORATIVE LTREB RESEARCH: POPULATION-AND COMMUNITY-LEVEL MECHANISMS OF RANGE LIMITATION IN A VARIABLE AND CHANGING ENVIRONMENT

预测全球气候变化的影响，从而为之做好准备，沿着最关键的问题是预测动植物的丰度和地理分布将如何受到天气模式改变的影响。高山和北极植物被认为是最容易受到这种变化影响的物种。该项目将继续对两种北极/高山植物进行长期研究，研究范围从阿拉斯加的北极苔原到科罗拉多的高山地区。迄今为止收集的数据显示，随着接近其南部界限，这两个物种在生存和繁殖方面的平均成功率下降，这些性能指标的变异性增加。计划中的项目将把这些生态响应与当地和区域气候模式联系起来，然后利用预测的气候变化和种群生态模型来预测这些物种未来的分布范围。拟议的工作将促进研究生和本科生参与生态研究的实验室和实地方面。这两个PI还参与了将开展这项工作的州的公共教育方案。最重要的是，这项研究将建立预测气候变化影响的能力，包括制定可推广到其他物种和生态系统的方法。

Along the most critical issues in anticipating, and thus preparing for, the effects of global climate change is predicting how the abundances and geographic distributions of plants and animals will be impacted by altered weather patterns. Alpine and arctic plants are among the species believed to be most susceptible to such changes. This project will continue a long-term study of two arctic/alpine plants across their range from arctic tundra in Alaska to high alpine areas of Colorado. Data collected to date show that as their southern limits are approached, both species show declining average success in survival and reproduction and higher variability in these performance measures. The planned project will tie these ecological responses to local and regional climate patterns and then using predicted climate changes and population ecology models to predict the future range limits of these species. The proposed work would foster involvement of graduate and undergraduate students in both lab and field aspects of ecological research. Both PIs are also involved in public education programs in the states where this work will be conducted. Most importantly, this research will build capacity to anticipate climate change impacts, including the development of methodologies that can be extended to other species and ecosystems.