Choosing Among Causal Agents in a Dynamic Environment

人们在一天中面临着无数的决定，但是在压力、复杂性和时间压力的情况下，这些决定是最重要的。在一系列可能的爆炸、奇怪的噪音、机械故障或仪器读数异常的原因中进行选择是困难的，特别是当有多个竞争的候选因素具有不同的时间特征、可能性和强度时。之前对因果判断的研究主要集中在控制实验上，但日常决策发生在不那么原始的条件下。为了检验之前的方法在复杂动态情境中的适用程度，我们提出的研究考察了电子游戏背景下的行为，其中包含多种因果候选、许多视觉视角和不同程度的复杂性。研究的参与者将面临关于敌人火力来源或其他威胁的战场决策。这些研究的理论基础是因果判断依赖于一种效应是否会发生以及何时会发生的主观确定性。这些实验旨在(a)评估在原因和结果之间弥合延迟的各种方法的相对有效性（考虑到已知延迟不利于有效的来源识别），(b)评估与偶然性、内生时间变异性和外生时间变异性信息整合相关的理论预测。(c)确定所提出的理论模型是否延伸到因果连续相关的情况（例如，原因的接近程度决定了其影响的大小）。这个项目的一个重要贡献是为研究决策创造了一个电子游戏环境。这个平台将与其他科学家共享，以鼓励动态决策理论的发展。

People face numerous decisions throughout the day, but nowhere are these decisions as critical as when they occur under conditions of stress, complexity, and time pressure. Choosing among a range of possible causes of explosions, weird noises, malfunctioning machinery, or unusual readings on instruments is difficult, especially when there are multiple competing candidates with varying time signatures, likelihoods, and intensities. Previous research on causal judgment has focused on controlled experiments, but everyday decision making occurs under less pristine conditions. To examine the extent to which prior approaches apply in complex dynamic situations, the proposed studies examine behavior within the context of a video game that involves multiple causal candidates, many visual perspectives, and varying degrees of complexity. Participants in the study will be faced with battlefield decisions regarding the source of enemy fire or other threats.The theoretical basis for these studies is that causal judgments rely on the subjective certainty regarding whether an effect will occur and when it will occur. The experiments are designed to (a) evaluate the relative effectiveness of various methods of bridging delays between causes and their effects (given that delays are known to be detrimental to effective source identification), (b) assess theoretical predictions relating to the integration of information about contingency, endogenous temporal variability, and exogenous temporal variability, and (c) determine whether a proposed theoretical model extends to situations in which a cause and its effect are continuously related (e.g., the proximity of a cause determines the magnitude of its effect). A critical contribution of this project is the creation of a video game environment for studying decision making. This platform will be shared with other scientists to encourage the development of theories of dynamic decision making.