Collaborative Research: Effect of a Warming Climate on Arctic Shelf and Basin Calanus Populations: Implications for Pan-Arctic Ecosystem Dynamics

哲水蚤属桡足类是北极浮游生态系统中的关键性浮游生物。北冰洋和边缘海的生态系统结构受到哲水蚤种群动态和生产的重大影响，而哲水蚤种群动态和生产又决定了可用于底栖或中上层食物网的初级生产量。哲水蚤是毛鳞鱼、鲱鱼、狭鳕和幼鳕等远洋鱼类的重要食物来源。因此，这并不奇怪，生态系统，支持高生物量的这些大型，富含脂质的桡足类动物也有丰富的渔业（如白令海和巴伦支海）。由于气候变化而导致的北极海持续变暖将对大陆架和盆地生态系统产生巨大影响，可能导致哲水蚤种群的生态系统转变或生物地理边界的转变。这种变化可能对冰架生态系统以及北极冰架和盆地之间的碳交换产生巨大影响。此外，北极大陆架生态系统结构和功能的变化可逐级上升到高营养级，包括具有重要商业价值的鱼类和海洋哺乳动物，这反过来又会对土著和世界人口产生重大影响。生物物理耦合模型和数值实验将被用来探索物理和生物因素，控制哲水蚤种群动态和地理边界在北冰洋和边缘海，并调查各种气候变暖的情况下，哲水蚤介导的政权在这些系统的潜在变化的影响。北冰洋有限体积沿海海洋模型综合物理模型系统将与一个单独的哲水蚤模型和一个四阶段哲水蚤浓度模型耦合。物理模型结合了大气，冰和海洋组成部分的系统，并建立了环境框架中的哲水蚤种群动力学运作。楚科奇海和巴伦支海在许多方面相似，但在其他方面又不同。分析将侧重于这两个陆架海和邻近盆地，但分析结果将适用于所有北极陆架上的哲水蚤动态。数据将来自广泛的物理和生物数据集，包括SBI计划。

Copepods of the genus Calanus are the keystone pelagic species in Arctic pelagic ecosystems. Ecosystem structure in the Arctic Ocean and marginal seas is significantly influenced by Calanus population dynamics and production that in turn determines the amount of primary production available either for benthic or pelagic food webs. Calanus are an important food source for pelagic fish species such as capelin, herring, pollock, and larval cod. Therefore, it is not surprising that ecosystems that support a high biomass of these large-bodied, lipid-rich copepods also have rich fisheries (e.g. Bering and Barents Seas). Ongoing warming of the Arctic seas due to climate change will have dramatic impacts on the shelf and basin ecosystems, potentially leading to regime shifts or shifts of biogeographic boundaries of the Calanus spp. Such shifts can have dramatic impacts both to the shelf ecosystems and to the exchange of carbon between Arctic shelves and basins. Furthermore, changes in Arctic shelf ecosystem structure and function can cascade up to upper trophic levels including commercially important fish species and marine mammals that in turn can significantly impact both indigenous and world human populations. Biological-physical coupled models and numerical experimentation will be used to explore the physical and biological factors that control Calanus population dynamics and biogeographic boundaries in the Arctic Ocean and marginal seas, and to investigate the impacts of various climate warming scenarios on the potential for Calanus mediated regime shifts in these systems. The Arctic Ocean Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model integrated physical model system will be coupled to an individually-based Calanus model and a 4-stage Calanus concentration model. The physical model incorporates the atmosphere, ice, and ocean components of the system and establishes the environmental framework in which the Calanus population dynamics operate. The Chukchi and Barents Seas are similar in many ways yet different in others. The analyses will focus on these two shelf-seas and adjacent basins, however, the results of the analyses will be applicable to Calanus dynamics on all Arctic shelves. Data will be integrated from a wide range of physical and biological data sets, including the SBI program.