US GLOBEC: NWA Georges Bank-Processes Controlling Abundance of Dominant Copepod Species on Georges Bank: Local Dynamics and Large-Scale Forcing

生物海洋学的一个基本目标是了解潜在的生物物理相互作用如何决定海洋生物的丰度。对于动物种群，众所周知，在生命早期阶段控制存活的因素（即，招募）是成人人口规模的重要决定因素，但由于模型和数据的限制，很难理解这些过程。 数值模拟的最新进展，加上新的三维数据集，提供了一个独特的机会，研究控制浮游动物种群规模的生物物理过程。该项目使用现有的最先进的生物/物理数值模式（FVCOM），以及最近处理的大型三维数据集从乔治银行GLOBEC计划进行理想化和现实的数值实验，探索控制季节性演变的详细机制，在占主导地位的浮游动物物种的空间格局在乔治银行。假设，解决占主导地位的桡足类物种种群是如何保持在银行，包括当地的动态和大规模的强迫将进行检查。一个具体的目标是确定观察到的每一物种的季节和空间模式特征（长期和年际）是否可以从其特有的生活史特征和物理迁移之间的相互作用来预测。桡足类种群的食物供应（自下而上）或捕食（自上而下）的过程控制的程度将进行检查，包括温暖的斜坡水与拉布拉多斜坡水（NAO依赖）的营养流入通过东北海峡和随后的上升流和生物增强的银行的影响。将通过控制来自特定来源地区的移民来研究银行本身和缅因州海湾的每个物种种群的自我维持能力。包括NAO和灾难性的全球变暖（例如，完全的极地冰融化）的大尺度强迫将通过在边界处强迫模型来明确地检查，使用基于流域尺度数据和并发流域尺度模拟工作的情景。这项建模研究将为控制海洋浮游动物丰度的局部和大规模过程的作用提供新的见解。优势桡足类物种进行研究，包括小的物种，这是占主导地位的猎物在这个地区的幼鳕鱼和黑线鳕，从而为并发的幼鱼建模研究提供了重要的信息。这种详细的、面向过程的、区域尺度的边界强迫模拟将为与整个海洋盆地的模型集成奠定基础。由此产生的模型将是GLOBEC乔治银行计划的遗产，提供了一个强大的新工具，用于了解当地和大规模的强迫如何相互作用，以控制海洋中的浮游生物生产。拟议工作的结果将通过利用现有基础设施的网络服务器，广泛传播给一般海洋学界、渔业、K-12机构和广大民众。基于网络的用户将能够访问模型结果，并使用选定的参数设置运行模型，以获得对特定气候强迫情景下的海流、水文和浮游生物丰度模式的预测。与WHOI/UMASS COSEE计划的合作将促进与K12学生和国内外公众的沟通。

A fundamental goal of Biological Oceanography is to understand how underlying biological-physical interactions determine abundance of marine organisms. For animal populations, it is well known that factors controlling survival during early life stages (i.e., recruitment) are strong determinants of adult population size, but understanding these processes has been difficult due to model and data limitations. Recent advances in numerical modeling, together with new 3D data sets, provide a unique opportunity to study the biological-physical processes controlling zooplankton population size. This project uses an existing state-of-the-art biological/physical numerical model (FVCOM) together with the recently processed large 3D data set from the Georges Bank GLOBEC program to conduct idealized and realistic numerical experiments that explore the detailed mechanisms controlling seasonal evolution of spatial patterns in dominant zooplankton species on Georges Bank. Hypotheses that address how dominant copepod species populations are maintained on the bank, including local dynamics and large-scale forcing will be examined. A specific goal is to determine whether the observed characteristic seasonal and spatial pattern of each species (long-term and inter-annual) is predictable from the interaction between its characteristic life-history traits and physical transport. The extent to which the copepod populations are controled by food-availability (bottom-up) or predation (top-down) processes will be examined, including the influence of Warm Slope Water versus Labrador Slope Water (NAO-dependent) on nutrient influx through the Northeast Channel and subsequent upwelling and biological enhancement on the bank. Self-sustainability of each species population on the bank itself and in the Gulf of Maine will be studied by controlling immigration from specific source regions. Large-scale forcing including NAO and catastrophic global warming (e.g. complete polar ice melt) will be examined explicitly by forcing the model at the boundaries, using scenarios based on basin-scale data and from concurrent basin-scale modeling efforts. This modeling study will provide new insights into the role of local and large-scale processes controlling zooplankton abundance in the ocean. The dominant copepod species to be studied include small species that are the dominant prey for larval cod and haddock in this region, thus providing critical information for concurrent larval fish modeling studies. This detailed, process-oriented, regional-scale modeling with boundary forcing will lay the groundwork for integration with models of the entire ocean basin. The resulting model will be a legacy of the GLOBEC Georges Bank program by providing a powerful new tool for understanding how local and large-scale forcing interact to control plankton production in the sea. Results of the proposed work will be broadly disseminated to the general oceanographic community, the fishing industry, K-12 institutions, and to the population at large, through web-based servers using existing infrastructure. Web-based users will be able to access model results and run the model using chosen parameter settings to obtain predictions of currents, hydrography, and plankton abundance patterns given selected climate forcing scenarios. Collaboration with the WHOI/UMASS COSEE program will foster communication with K12 students and the public both nationally and internationally.