An Antarctic-Specific, New Generation Precipitation Model

该建议寻求支持为南极帽开发一种新的电离层粒子降水模式。目前使用最广泛的降水模式已有20多年的历史（Hardy et al., 1985, 1989）；它是从一组有限的卫星数据和外推法发展而来的，其中将南北两极的冰盖交叉结合在一起以增加统计数据。该降水模式尚未对全球紫外线极光图像进行测试，因此其操作有效性尚不确定。该模型的主要初始参数（行星地磁活动的Kp指数）表明，即使是理想状态（并非理想状态），也只能预测不到一半的极光功率（即由沉降粒子带入电离层的功率）。由于DMSP数据集在过去二十年中增长巨大，因此已经取得了许多进展。累积了超过60个卫星年的数据，其本地时间覆盖范围大大扩大（部分原因是卫星轨道漂移）。美国国家航空航天局极地航天器的太阳周期价值全球极光图像现在可以在网上获得，提供校准和验证全球极光功率的瞬时预测的能力。提出的模型将使用特定的功能拟合（而不是宽箱）和优化的太阳风参数。新模型还将探索基本的空间物理科学问题；例如，虽然已知在黑暗中比在阳光下发生更多的沉淀能量通量，但对通量光谱形状的变化知之甚少。地球磁偶极子与地球中心的偏移引起了人们对南北半球降水差异的猜测。因此，目前的建议最适合解决这一问题，特别是发展南极上空的降水模式。这种新的降水模式可作为高纬度高层大气化学模式的输入，用于估计电离层电导率，用于确定空间天气对业务系统的影响，以及其他许多方面。

The proposal seeks support for developing a new ionospheric particle precipitation model for the Southern polar cap. The most widely used precipitation model today is more than two decades old (Hardy et al., 1985, 1989); it was developed from a limited set of satellite data with extrapolation, where both the Northern and Southern polar cap crossings were combined together to increase statistics. This precipitation model has not been tested against global UV auroral images, and thus its operational effectiveness is undetermined. The model's main binning parameter (Kp index of planetary geomagnetic activity) implies that only less than half the variance in auroral power (i.e., power brought by precipitating particles into the ionosphere) can be predicted, even were binning ideal (which was not). Many advances have occurred since because the DMSP dataset has grown enormously over the last two decades. There are more than 60 satellite-years of data accumulated with vastly greater local time coverage (partly due to satellite orbit drifts). A solar cycle worth of NASA's POLAR spacecraft UV global auroral images are now available on-line, providing the ability to calibrate and validate instantaneous predictions of global auroral power. The proposed model will use specific functional fits (rather than wide bins) and optimized solar wind parameters. The new model will also probe basic space physics science problems; for example, although it is known that more precipitating energy flux occurs in darkness than in sunlight, little is known about the change in flux's spectral shape. The offset of Earth's magnetic dipole from the planet center has led to speculation about precipitation differences between the Northern and Southern hemispheres. Therefore, the present proposal is best suited to resolve this issue developing specifically the precipitation model over the Antarctic. This new precipitation model can be used as input to high-latitude upper atmospheric chemistry models, for estimating ionospheric conductivity, for determining the impact of space weather on operational systems, and much else.