Collaborative Research: Will Climate Change Alter Rates of Old Field Succession Across the U.S. Eastern Deciduous Forest? A Cross-latitude Experimental Network

对生态群落如何随时间变化的研究，为了解影响群落内物种特征和丰度的机制提供了关键见解。大多数关于演替的研究都集中在局部区域内的变化，而不是比较广泛地理区域的变化模式。对已发表的研究的比较表明，温度可能是限制美国东部落叶森林受到干扰后树木覆盖重建速度的一个重要因素。沿着从纽约州锡拉丘兹到佛罗里达州塔拉哈西的纬度梯度，在6个地点进行实验，将用于测试温度、土壤肥力和植物物种库作为东部落叶森林生态系统中先驱树发芽、生长和存活速度的主要驱动因素的重要性。利用东部落叶林从北到南的广泛分布的地点是本研究的关键，因为它允许在一个显著的温度梯度上对土壤和物种组成进行类似的操作。来自这些实验的数据将被纳入一个分层建模结构，该结构将评估对森林演替率的控制，并将提供有关气候变化对这些森林管理策略的潜在影响的见解。该项目将支持两名年轻的教师调查员，以及一些将参与该研究许多方面的本科生。

Studies of how ecological communities change over time have provided key insights into mechanisms that influence the identity and abundance of species within communities. Most studies of succession have focused on changes within a local area, rather than comparing patterns of change over broad geographic regions. Comparison of published studies suggests that temperature may be an important factor in limiting the rate at which tree cover is reestablished following disturbance in deciduous forests in the eastern United States. Experiments at 6 sites, along a latitudinal gradient from Syracuse, NY, to Tallahassee, FL, will be used to test the importance of temperature, soil fertility, and plant species pools as major drivers of rates of germination, growth, and survival of pioneer trees in eastern deciduous forest ecosystems. Use of widely distributed sites spanning the north-to-south extent of eastern deciduous forests is key to this study as it allows similar manipulations of soils and species composition across a significant temperature gradient. Data from these experiments will be incorporated into a hierarchical modeling structure that will assess the controls on rates of forest succession, and they will provide insights into a potential effect of climate change on management strategies for these forests. Two young faculty investigators will be supported by this project, as will a number of undergraduate students who will participate in many aspects of the research.