Doctoral Dissertation Improvement: Statistical Modeling of Demographic and Epidemiological Patterns in Late Prehistoric West-Central Illinois

生物考古学分析为理解人类人口的人口和流行病学模式如何随着生态、社会和生存变化而演变提供了敏锐的洞察力。这项研究将对将驯化植物纳入由一组时间和空间受控的骨骼样本代表的种群样本的饮食进行细粒度分析。之前对中西部和东南部美洲原住民人口的研究表明，在欧洲人到来之前的千年里，美国人的健康状况普遍下降。这项研究将调查史前晚期生活在伊利诺伊州中部河谷的美洲原住民的福祉。五个保存完好、按年代分层的大型骨骼样本可供分析，年代可追溯到伍德兰晚期(公元400年至公元1050年)、密西西比中期(公元1050年至公元1300年)和大胆顾问奥尼奥塔(公元1300年至公元1425年)时期。在几百年的过程中，这些人口变得更加依赖粮食生产，接受了泛区域认同和更高水平的社会分层，集中在河谷悬崖边的设防村庄，并经历了地方病和人际暴力的增加。这项研究有两个主要组成部分，将包括来自近1400具骨骼的数据。第一部分将采用危险模型和估计死亡年龄的贝叶斯方法，重建该区域五个连续考古阶段的死亡模式。第二部分将检查选定的骨骼生长和牙齿健康指标，以探索它们与死亡风险的协变性。这些分析的结果将是为该区域制作一个健康和不同脆弱性的模型，该模型将深入了解死亡风险如何随着生物、生态和社会因素的变化而演变。过去人口的人口和流行病学模式为人类当前和未来的状况提供了敏锐的视角。生产食物的选择对人类健康和人口统计学产生了深远的影响。这个项目的意义在于它应用了生物人类学中的理论和方法进步，以促进我们对美国中西部考古记录充分的地区强化粮食生产、文化变化和相互作用的生物成本(死亡率、疾病和压力)的理解。这项研究的结果将在科学会议和同行评议的期刊上公布。这项研究产生的数据库将提供给研究人员进行比较和合作。

Bioarchaeological analyses provide keen insight for understanding how the demographic and epidemiological patterns of human populations evolved in response to ecological, social and subsistence changes. The study will provide a fine-grained analysis of the incorporation of domesticated plants into the diet of a sample of populations represented by a temporally and spatially controlled set of skeletal samples. Previous research on Midwestern and Southeastern Native American populations suggests there was a general decline in health over the millennium prior to the arrival of Europeans. This study will investigate the well-being of Native American populations living in the Central Illinois River Valley during late prehistory. Five large, well-preserved and chronologically stratified skeletal samples dating to the Late Woodland (AD 400 to AD 1050), Middle Mississippian (AD 1050 to AD 1300), and Bold Counselor Oneota (AD 1300 to AD 1425) periods are available for analysis. Over the course of several hundred years these populations became more reliant on food production, embraced a pan-regional identity and a higher level of social stratification, nucleated in fortified villages along the bluffs of the river valley, and experienced an increase in endemic diseases and inter-personal violence. This research has two main components that will include data from nearly 1,400 skeletons. The first component will employ hazard models and Bayesian methods of estimating age-at-death to reconstruct the mortality patterns for the five sequential archaeological phases in the region. The second component will examine select indicators of skeletal growth and dental health to explore their co-variance with the risk of death. The result of these analyses will be the production of a model of health and differential frailty for the region that will provide insight into how the risk of death evolved in response to biological, ecological and social factors. The demographic and epidemiological patterns of past populations provide keen perspectives on the current and future condition of humans. The choice to produce food had a profound impact on human health and demography. The significance of this project rests on its application of theoretical and methodological advancements in biological anthropology to further our understanding of the biological cost (mortality, disease and stress) of intensified food production, cultural change and interaction for an archaeologically well-documented region of the Midwestern United States. The results of this research will be presented at scientific meetings and peer-reviewed journals. The database generated by the study will be made available to researchers for comparative purposes and collaborative efforts.