Mesoamerican Dendroclimatology: Climate Dynamics and Socioeconomic Applications

资金将允许研究人员继续开发来自中美洲的长而精确的树木年轮年表，用于重建季节性降水模式和相关的大尺度气候动力学。具体来说，研究人员将：1)在墨西哥中南部和危地马拉建立气候敏感的蒙特祖玛baldcypress、Douglas-fir和其他针叶树年代学网络；2)分析过去1200年在Qeretaro的Barranca de Amealco和过去1600年在San Luis Potosi的Los Peroles的Montezuma baldcypress年表；3)在墨西哥和危地马拉扩展网格化干旱严重程度重建，提供气候变率的代理记录，并将当前干旱置于历史背景中；4)研究中美洲水文气候学的长期大尺度海洋-大气强迫；5)对墨西哥南部和危地马拉的区域降水、河流和作物产量记录进行校准重建；6)探索重建的极端气候与墨西哥和危地马拉的流行病、蝗灾和社会混乱的历史记录之间的联系。这项研究整合了通常不同的研究领域，如气候、生物学、流行病学和经济学。智力整合加上强大的培训和国际合作，使该项目具有广泛的影响力。

Funding will allow the researcher to continue developing long, exactly dated tree-ring chronologies from Mesoamerica for use in reconstructing patterns of seasonal precipitation and associated large-scale climate dynamics. Specifically, the researcher will: 1) develop a network of climate-sensitive Montezuma baldcypress, Douglas-fir, and other conifer chronologies in central and southern Mexico and Guatemala; 2) analyze the Montezuma baldcypress chronologies spanning the past 1200 years at Barranca de Amealco, Qeretaro and the past 1600-years at Los Peroles, San Luis Potosi; 3) expand gridded drought severity reconstructions across Mexico and Guatemala to provide a proxy record of climate variability and to place the current drought in historical context; 4) investigate the long term, large scale ocean-atmospheric forcing of Mesoamerican hydroclimatology; 5) develop calibrated reconstructions of regional precipitation, streamflow, and crop yield records for southern Mexico and Guatemala; and 6) explore the link between reconstructed climate extremes and the historical record of epidemic disease, locust outbreaks, and social disruption in Mexico and Guatemala. This research integrates across usually disparate fields of inquiry such as climate, biology, epidemiology, and economics. The intellectual integration coupled with strong training and international collaboration makes for promising broad impact by this project.