Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: When And Why Negative Campaigning Affects Voter Turnout

负面的竞选广告会使选民退却吗？这个问题的答案对于理解民主至关重要。如果负面的竞选广告阻碍了公民投票，那么政治合法性就存在问题。这个项目展示了竞选消极情绪何时以及为何会阻碍人们投票。更具体地说，该项目表明，负面广告只有在特定条件下才能使选民复员。关于这一主题的现有工作产生了相互矛盾的结果。一些学者认为负面广告会使选民复员，而另一些学者则认为负面广告实际上增加了投票率，或者对投票率没有任何特别的影响。该项目认为，学者们之所以陷入这种经验僵局，是因为现有的研究忽略了两个关键观点：一些人在选举日之前很久就决定了他们更喜欢哪位候选人，而负面信息在一个人决定如何投票之前和之后会产生不同的影响。这项研究结合了这两种观点，认为负面广告会使选民退缩，但只是那些已经决定了他们更喜欢哪位候选人的人。该项目使用一个实验来直接测试这一过程，并调查了七次选举中的数据来证明这一模式。在更广泛的层面上，这项研究表明，在选举季节后期转为负面的竞选活动更有可能降低选民投票率。此外，我的工作为从业者提供了一个路线图。“走向负面”是竞选工作人员争论的一个话题，因为负面广告是否以及何时对候选人的竞选有帮助，通常都不清楚。这里进行的研究通过澄清负面竞选如何影响选民以及哪些选民最容易受到负面情绪的影响，有助于处理这些不确定性。

Do negative campaign advertisements demobilize voters? The answer to this question is crucial to understanding democracy. If negative campaign advertisements discourage citizens from voting, then political legitimacy is in question. This project shows when and why campaign negativity can discourage individuals from voting. More specifically, the project demonstrates that negative advertisements demobilize voters only under specific conditions.Existing work on this topic has produced conflicting results. Some scholars claim that negative advertising demobilizes the electorate, while other scholars argue either that negative advertising actually increases turnout or does not have any particular effect on turnout. This project contends that scholars have reached this empirical stalemate because existing research ignores two critical ideas: some individuals decide which candidate they prefer long before Election Day and negative information has a different effect before and after a person decides how to vote. This study combines these two ideas to argue that negative advertising demobilizes voters, but only those who have decided which candidate they prefer. The project uses an experiment to test this process directly and survey data to demonstrate this pattern over seven elections. On a broader level, this study suggests that campaigns that turn negative late in the election season may be more likely to lower voter turnout. In addition, my work provides a roadmap for practitioners. "Going negative" is a topic debated among campaign staffers because it is often unclear if and when negative ads aid candidates in their quest for office. The research undertaken here helps deal with these uncertainties by clarifying how negative campaigning affects voters and which voters will be most susceptible to negativity.