Modeling Building Downtime Due to Hurricane Impacts

该项目旨在开发一种程序，以估计建筑物停机时间作为飓风强度、结构响应、建筑物内容损坏/损失和基础设施网络系统故障的函数。在最近的自然灾害中，由于财产损失、商业中断和基础设施故障造成的巨大损失——在卡特里娜飓风中，50万所房屋受损/被毁，1.8万家企业关闭，175万人流离失所——放大了在未来事件中准确预测这些损失的必要性。考虑到过去的飓风对商业中断和人口迁移造成的损失的影响，必须提供一种更准确地估计建筑物停机时间的方法，以用于基于性能的风力工程。基于性能的工程（PBE）是一种将与各种类型的利益相关者相关的期望性能水平纳入设计过程的方法。这项工作将与正在进行的佛罗里达州飓风保险损失估计研究相结合，以便对一个案例研究区域进行飓风脆弱性评估。这项工作将以申请人先前的工作为基础，为以下生命线：电力、供水和电信开发损坏和故障模型（考虑网络互连）。这些模型的结果将用于估计公用事业网络中断对建筑物恢复的二次影响。本研究中开发的停机时间模型将用于计算佛罗里达州沿海研究区域典型单户住宅的停机时间相关损失和人口迁移。这些结果将与历史数据进行比较，以验证模型。在这个项目中开发的停机模型将作为一种工具，汇集来自不同学科的前沿研究，以解决暴露在飓风强风下的建筑物停机建模的明显需求。将该项目中开发的停机模型整合到开源损失评估可视化工具MAEviz中，确保了方法的透明度，以及向其他研究人员广泛而轻松地传播工作。此外，该项目的成果不仅将为设计的新范式（基于性能的风力工程）提供一个关键的新工具（停机建模），而且还将教育下一代具有多学科思维的专业人士。该项目的成果将直接整合到pi教授的课程中，包括基于性能的工程、HMAC、风险分析和政策分析。

This project aims to develop a procedure for estimating building downtime as a function of hurricane intensity, structural response, building content damage/loss, and failure of infrastructure networked systems. Extensive losses due to property damage, business interruption, and infrastructure failure in recent natural disasters - 500,000 houses damaged/destroyed, 18,000 businesses closed, and 1.75 million people were displaced in Hurricane Katrina - have magnified the need to accurately predict these losses in future events. Given the impact of past hurricanes on losses due to business interruption and population displacement, it is imperative to provide a methodology for more accurate estimation of building downtime for use in performance-based wind engineering. Performance-based engineering (PBE) is a methodology that incorporates desired performance levels, relevant to various types of stakeholders, into the design process. This effort will be combined with an ongoing hurricane insured loss estimation study of Florida in order to perform a hurricane vulnerability assessment of a case study region. This work will build on previous work by the applicants to develop damage and failure models (accounting for network interconnection) for the following lifelines: electricity, water distribution, and telecommunication. The results from these models will be used to estimate the secondary effects that utility network disruptions have on the recovery of buildings. The downtime model developed in this study will be used to calculate downtime-related losses and population displacement for typical single family homes in a Florida coastal study area. These results will be compared to historical data to validate the model.The downtime model developed in this project will serve as a vehicle to bring together cutting edge research from various disciplines that addresses a glaring need for downtime modeling of buildings exposed to hurricane force winds. The incorporation of the downtime model developed in this project into MAEviz, an open-source loss assessment visualization tool ensures transparency in the methodology as well as broad and easy dissemination of the work to other researchers. Additionally, the results of this project will not only provide a critical new tool (downtime modeling) to a new paradigm of design (performance-based wind engineering), but it will also educate a future generation of professionals in multidisciplinary thinking. The results of this project will be directly integrated into courses taught by the PIs, covering performance-based engineering, HMAC, risk analysis, and policy analysis.