Habitat Fragmentation: Predicting Long Term Extinction Dynamics from Transient Dynamics and Species Traits

生境的丧失和破碎是物种灭绝和生物多样性丧失的主要原因。然而，很少有研究的长期影响的直接实验中，栖息地已被分割在大的空间尺度上，代表土地利用对景观的影响，这样的实验提供了直接测试的机制，被认为是使物种或多或少容忍栖息地破碎化。短期反应实验栖息地破碎化更常见的记录，但这些可能是短暂的，所以可能无法预测的物种在较长的时间内的命运。有多少物种最初数量减少，最终走向灭绝？那些最初对栖息地破碎化没有反应的物种会在更长的时间内灭绝吗？该项目将在Wog Wog碎片化实验（澳大利亚）中回答这些问题，这是温带森林中运行时间最长的大规模碎片化实验。实验前五年的现有数据将与现在收集的一系列匹配的新数据相结合，在碎片化后23-26年，以确定甲虫物种的初始瞬态动态是否预测其长期命运，并测试哪些特征预测环境生境变化的脆弱性或鲁棒性。 生境丧失和破碎化继续加速，是生物多样性丧失的主要原因。了解它们作为灭绝驱动因素的作用对保护和土地管理越来越重要。长期运行，大规模的Wog Wog实验提供了一个独特的机会来了解物种为什么以及如何灭绝，以及哪些物种面临的风险最大。一名技术员、一名研究生和六名本科生将通过参加该项目接受生物学和数学方面的跨学科培训，并将为高中生编写宣传材料。

The loss and fragmentation of habitat is a primary cause of species extinction and loss of biodiversity. However, there are few studies of the long-term effects of a direct experiment in which habitat has been fragmented at the large spatial scales that typify the effects of land use on the landscape; such experiments provide direct tests of the mechanisms that are thought to make species more or less tolerant of habitat fragmentation. Short-term responses to experimental habitat fragmentation are more commonly documented, but these may be transient and so may not predict fates of species in the longer term. How many species that initially decline eventually go extinct? Do species that do not respond initially to habitat fragmentation go extinct in the longer term? This project will answer these questions in the Wog Wog fragmentation experiment (Australia), the longest running large-scale fragmentation experiment in temperate forest. Existing data from the first five years of the experiment will be combined with a matching series of new data to be collected now, 23-26 years after fragmentation, to determine whether the initial transient dynamics of beetle species predict their fates in the long term and to test which characteristics predict vulnerability or robustness to environmental habitat change. Habitat loss and fragmentation continue at an accelerating rate and account for most biodiversity loss. Understanding their roles as drivers of extinction is of increasing importance to conservation and land management. The long-running, large-scale Wog Wog experiment provides a unique opportunity to understand why and how species go extinct, and which species are most at risk. A technician, a graduate student, and six undergraduates will receive interdisciplinary training in biology and mathematics through participation in this project, and outreach materials will be developed for high school students.