CAREER: Investigation of Regional Land-Atmosphere Interactions in Semi-arid Cities Using the WRF-Noah-Urban Canopy Model

职业：利用wrf - noah -城市冠层模型研究半干旱城市区域陆地-大气相互作用terri Hogue，加州大学洛杉矶分校摘要本奖项由2009年美国复苏与再投资法案（公法111-5）资助。未来的极端气候将严重影响半干旱地区的人口，加剧区域供水问题，增加能源需求。大都市地区目前支持着全球50%的人口？美国人口占北美人口的80%。许多这样的城市中心位于半干旱或干旱地区，这些地区对极端气候（热浪、异常降水、干旱等）特别敏感。随着降水可能减少，极端事件的可能性增加，以及许多大型储水系统（如科罗拉多河）的储水量已经枯竭，存在严重的水政策问题，需要对气候-地表相互作用进行复杂的建模，以更好地了解和预测未来的影响。水资源管理策略对潜在极端气候的适应性受到当前环流模式（GCMs）预测能力的限制，而这些模式在区域尺度上的解决能力较差。当前提案的目标是推进半干旱城市陆地-大气相互作用的高分辨率建模和理解，并最终促进这些关键和人口密集地区的气候预测。拟议的工作将集中于开发一个高分辨率的陆地-大气-城市冠层模型，该模型将（强制和校准）与一套广泛的地面观测以及地表能量和水通量的遥感产品相结合。陆地-大气耦合模式将在加州洛杉矶和亚利桑那州凤凰城两个大型城市区域运行，用于一系列大气条件（正常高温条件、极端热浪、异常降水等）。城市气候对地表绿化的敏感性研究还将评估蒸发冷却（水需求）与城市供暖（能源需求）的相关效益和权衡。最终目标是建立一个可转移的区域尺度模型，能够预测人为和气候干扰对缺水景观的影响。拟议的项目大量利用遥感平台方面的进展，并提供可能的数据同化机制，这些机制可以很容易地纳入大都市区域的综合管理和解决办法系统。通过美国国家科学基金会加州大学洛杉矶分校SEE-LA GK-12项目，将洛杉矶学区的观测网络和环境课程整合起来，将有助于培养环境意识，并为受过良好教育的劳动力奠定基础，使他们能够提供工程解决方案并减轻影响。公众宣传和教育对于减少人类对地球的影响至关重要。该奖项提出的综合活动将有助于培养具有科学素养和知情的公民，同时也回答了大型人口中心关键的水和能源需求问题。

CAREER: Investigation of Regional Land-Atmosphere Interactions in Semi-arid Cities Using the WRF-Noah-Urban Canopy ModelTerri Hogue, University of California, Los AngelesAbstractThis award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). Future climate extremes will significantly impact populations in semi-arid regions, exacerbating regional water supply problems and increasing energy demand. Metropolitan regions currently support around 50% of the world?s population and 80% of the population of North America. Many of these urban centers are in semi-arid or arid regions that are particularly sensitive to climate extremes (heat-waves, anomalous precipitation, droughts, etc.). With probable declines in precipitation, increasing probability of extreme events, and already depleted stocks in many large storage systems (e.g., Colorado River), there are serious water policy issues that require sophisticated modeling of climate-surface interactions to better understand and predict future impacts. The adaptability of water resource management strategies to potential climate extremes is limited by a reliance on the predictive capabilities of current General Circulation Models (GCMs) which are poorly resolved at the regional scale. Objectives of the current proposal are to advance high-resolution modeling and understanding of land-atmosphere interactions in semi-arid cities, and ultimately, facilitate improved climate predictions in these critical and highly-populated regions. Proposed work will center on the development of a high-resolution, land-atmosphere-urban canopy model that is integrated (forced and calibrated) with an extensive set of ground-based observations as well as remotely-sensed products of surface energy and water fluxes. The coupled land-atmosphere model will be run over two large urban domains, Los Angeles, CA and Phoenix, AZ for a range of atmospheric conditions (normal heat conditions, extreme heat waves, anomalous precipitation, etc.). Studies on the sensitivity of the urban climate to surface ?greenness? will also be undertaken to evaluate the related benefits and tradeoffs of evaporative cooling (water demand) versus urban heat (energy demand). The ultimate goal is to build a transferable regional-scale model capable of predicting the impacts of anthropogenic and climate disturbance on water-stressed landscapes. The proposed project makes substantial use of advances in remote sensing platforms and provides for potential data assimilations mechanisms that can be readily integrated into comprehensive management and solution systems for metropolitan regions. The integration of observational networks and environmental curriculum at Los Angeles school districts, facilitated through the NSF UCLA SEE-LA GK-12 program, will help foster environmental awareness and build the foundation for an educated workforce capable of engineering solutions and mitigating impacts. Public outreach and education are critical to reducing the impact of humans on the Earth?s surface, and the integrated activities proposed in this CAREER award will help build a scientifically literate and informed citizenry, while also answering critical water and energy demand questions for large population centers.