Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy, and Trade Policy

该提案包括三个部分。第一部分考察了粘性价格动态随机一般均衡开放经济模型中的实际汇率行为。特别是，这项研究建议揭示汇率对有关未来基本面的消息做出强烈反应的模型的一般属性。在这些模型中，实际汇率可以求解为当前和预期的未来实际和货币扰动的现值。然而，在一些标准模型中，当政策稳定通胀时，对未来预期基本面的权重较低。实际汇率不是各国相对通货膨胀率的唯一决定因素的模型，似乎允许预期的未来基本面以一种与经验研究结果一致的方式影响汇率。研究的第二部分分析了汇率具有前瞻性时的最优货币政策。特别是，它会问，在实际汇率对消息做出强烈反应的环境下，标准的通胀目标制处方是否最优，或者几乎是最优的。提案的第三部分是考察名义价格粘性条件下的关税和贸易政策。它将讨论在如何设定名义价格的不同假设下关税的积极影响。这项拟议的研究将解决汇率政策类似于保护主义贸易政策的意义。它还将研究粘性价格下的最优关税政策。拟议的三个主要领域都涉及开放经济体的应用一般均衡模型，并受到经验工作的推动。任何这样的工作最终都将产生更广泛的影响，促进人们更好地了解宏观经济的运作，从而更好地制定政策。提案的第二和第三部分与政策问题直接相关，考察名义价格具有粘性的经济体的货币政策和贸易政策。

The proposal has three parts. The first examines real exchange rate behavior in sticky-price DSGE open-economy models. In particular, the research proposes to uncover the general attributes of models in which exchange rates react strongly to news about future fundamentals. In these models, the real exchange rate can be solved as a present value of current and expected future disturbances, real and monetary. In some standard models, however, when policy stabilizes inflation, the weight on future expected fundamentals is low. Models in which the real exchange rate is not the sole determinant of relative inflation rates across countries appear to allow scope for expected future fundamentals to influence exchange rates in a way that is consistent with empirical findings. The second part of the research will analyze optimal monetary policy when the exchange rate is forward looking. In particular, it will ask whether standard inflation-targeting prescriptions are optimal, or nearly so, in an environment in which real exchange rates react strongly to news. The third part of the proposal is to examine tariffs and trade policy under sticky nominal prices. It will address the positive effects of tariffs under different assumptions of how nominal prices are set. The proposed research will address the sense in which exchange-rate policy is analogous to protectionist trade policies. It will also examine optimal tariff policy under sticky prices.The three major areas of proposed work all involve applied general equilibrium modeling of open economies and are motivated by empirical work. Any work such as this will ultimately have broader impact in terms of promoting better understanding of the workings of the macroeconomy, and hence better policy making. The second and third parts of the proposal are directly related to policy questions, examining monetary policy and trade policy in economies with sticky nominal prices.