Effects of Environmental Cues and Informal and Official Warnings on Protective Action Decision Making: A Case Study for Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Indian Ocean

这项研究的目的是将早期的小额探索性研究拨款奖(BCS-0522301，HSD SGER：影响行为对海啸自然警报信号反应的因素：2004年12月26日地震的案例研究)的结果转化为一项强有力的纵向研究，以更深入地了解人们？S对与环境线索和警告相关的信息以及相应的保护行动行为的社会认知处理。很少有社会科学研究调查人类对海啸的反应？2004年印度洋地震和海啸前的环境线索和非正式和官方警告，但最大和最全面的研究是在随后的几个月里由国家科学基金会SGER奖BCS-0522301在泰国进行的。国家外汇管理局的数据显示，2004年海啸的高死亡人数并不是由于缺乏预警，而是因为人们？S无法准确地解读海啸袭击海岸前获得的信息并采取行动。这些信息包括不同的环境线索和不同时间尺度的非正式警告。例如，SGER显示，环境线索和非正式警告为大多数人提供了足够的预警，足以让大多数人在2004年幸存下来，因为泰国约74%的海啸幸存者直到第一波波峰袭击海岸前15分钟才注意到海岸线衰退或异常海浪和洋流。然而，这些暗示并没有引发适当的行为，因为65%的人在第一次峰顶到来时看到许多人在危险区域观看大海！几乎每个受海啸影响的国家都记录了类似的行为。该项目将研究泰国目前的情况以及2004年和2005年泰国发生的事件的各个方面。首先，将重新采访SGER受访者(N=663)，以测试保护行动决策模型(PADM；Lindell and Perry，2004)是否能够预测2010年对环境线索和警告的反应。另一项独立但平行的研究侧重于了解这一人群中灾难记忆的各个方面。其目标是提高对环境线索、警告和反应之间联系的基本了解，并开发改进的预测模型和教育材料。还没有对海啸的行为模型进行测试，但SGER的数据提供了最佳的起点。事实证明，PADM在预测美国对其他危险的反应方面是成功的，但在其他地方还没有得到测试。展示为西方社会开发的PADM在东亚(亚洲)社会的效用将极大地增加其效用。同样，了解2004年各种环境中环境线索、警告和反应的发生、顺序和时间，以及对这一事件的记忆发生了怎样的变化，将有助于查明2004年灾难发生时时空上许多人死亡的根本原因。这一点很重要，因为海啸将继续威胁世界各地不断膨胀的沿海人口的居民和游客。通过更好地了解社会如何应对2004年的灾难，并在现在(五年后)回忆起这场灾难，可以在传播信息的方式和内容方面产生真正的变化。此外，这些方法还可以复制到其他危险中。这项研究对于帮助美国和其他地方的沿海社区建立抵御海啸的能力至关重要，它解决了这样一个事实，即一个有效的海啸预警系统必须反映与环境线索和非正式警告相关的社会动态，而不是官方警告。研究结果将通过印刷出版物和网络广泛传播，并用于制定有效的教育计划，使社区为未来的海啸做好准备。

The objective of this research study is to translate the results of an earlier Small Grant for Exploratory Research (SGER) award (BCS-0522301, HSD SGER: Factors Affecting Behavioral Response to Natural Warning Signs of Tsunami: the Case Study of the December 26, 2004 Earthquake) to a robust longitudinal study to provide greater insight into people?s social-cognitive processing of information related to environmental cues and warnings and corresponding protective action behavior. Very few social science studies had investigated human response to tsunamis? environmental cues and informal and official warnings before the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, but the largest and most comprehensive study was conducted in Thailand in the months afterward by NSF SGER award BCS-0522301. The SGER showed that the high death toll from the 2004 tsunami was not due to a lack of warning, but to people?s inability to accurately interpret and act on information that was available to them before the tsunami impacted the shore. The information included diverse environmental cues and informal warnings at differing time scales. For example, the SGER showed that environmental cues and informal warnings provided enough forewarning for most people to survive in 2004, as some 74 percent of tsunami survivors in Thailand noticed the shoreline recession or unusual waves and currents up to 15minutes before the first wave crest hit the shore. However, these cues did NOT trigger appropriate behavior, as 65 percent saw many people in the danger zone, watching the sea, when the first crest arrived! Similar behavior was recorded in nearly every tsunami-affected country. This project will study the current situation in Thailand and aspects of the 2004 and 2005 events there. First, the SGER respondents (N=663) will be re-interviewed to test whether the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM; Lindell and Perry, 2004) can predict response to environmental cues and warnings in 2010. A separate but parallel study focuses on understanding aspects of disaster memory in this population. The goal is to improve fundamental understanding of the links between environmental cues and warnings and response and to develop improved predictive models and educational materials. No behavioral model has been tested for tsunamis but the SGER data provide the best starting point. The PADM has proven successful in predicting response to other hazards in the US, but is untested elsewhere. Demonstrating the utility of the PADM, developed for a Western society, in an Eastern (Asian) society would add greatly to its utility. Likewise, understanding the occurrence, order and timing of environmental cues, warnings and response in diverse settings during 2004 and how memory of the event has changed will help identify root causes of many deaths across space and time as the 2004 disaster unfolded. This is important because tsunamis will continue to threaten both residents and visitors in swelling coastal populations worldwide. Through improved understanding of how society interfaced with the 2004 disaster and recalls memory of it now (five years later), real change can be created in how and what information should be communicated. Moreover, these methods can be replicated for other hazards. This research is critical to help build coastal community resilience to tsunamis in the US and elsewhere and it addresses the fact that an effective tsunami warning system must reflect the social dynamics associated with environmental cues and informal warnings in addition to official warnings. Findings will be widely disseminated through print publications, the Web and used to frame effective education programs preparing communities for future tsunamis.