Collaborative Research: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Mediterranean Teleconnection: Observations and Dynamics

大量研究表明，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）与地中海盆地（南欧、北非、安纳托利亚和中东）降水之间存在统计学关联。这些遥相关的动力学基础还有待确定。北非-亚洲（NAA）喷气机从亚热带大西洋穿过北非、地中海、南亚和日本，一直延伸到北太平洋。大气喷流，如NAA喷流，已被证明是大气罗斯比波扰动的波导，因此，在相隔很远的区域之间产生远距连接。地中海盆地位于NAA喷气机的航线上。在他们之前的工作中，这些研究人员表明，与ENSO相关的赤道太平洋条件全年都在调节NAA喷气机。ENSO和NAA喷流之间的远相关似乎是由静止的正压罗斯比波介导的。该项目将检验ENSO-地中海远相关是由ENSO引起的NAA射流变化的结果的假设。观测资料和一系列模式将用于研究ENSO-NAA急流遥相关的动力学，并确定地中海地区的降水在多大程度上受enso调制的NAA急流变化的控制。这项研究的更广泛影响和社会相关性在于地中海地区气候，特别是降水变化在经济、社会和流行病学方面的重要性。

Numerous studies have demonstrated statistical associations between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation in the Mediterranean basin (southern Europe, North Africa, Anatolia, and the Middle East). The dynamical bases for these teleconnections have yet to be identified. The North African-Asian (NAA) jet extends from the subtropical Atlantic Ocean across North Africa, the Mediterranean, South Asia and Japan to the North Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric jets, such as the NAA jet, have been shown to act as waveguides to atmospheric Rossby wave disturbances and, therefore, to create teleconnections between widely separated regions. The Mediterranean basin lies in the path of the NAA jet. In their previous work, these investigators showed that the NAA jet is modulated throughout the year by conditions in the equatorial Pacific associated with ENSO. This teleconnection between ENSO and the NAA jet appears to be mediated by stationary barotropic Rossby waves.This project will examine the hypothesis that the ENSO-Mediterranean teleconnection is the result of changes in the NAA jet caused by ENSO. Observations and a hierarchy of models will be used to investigate the dynamics of the ENSO-NAA jet teleconnection and to determine the extent to which precipitation in the Mediterranean region is controlled by ENSO-modulated changes to the NAA jet. The broader impacts and the societal relevance of this research are in the economic, social and epidemiological importance of climate, and especially precipitation, variability in the Mediterranean region.