Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Dynamic Policy Responsiveness in the US States

当公民改变他们的政策偏好时，政策遵循的紧密程度如何？答案是民主理论的核心。人民主权原则意味着一定程度的动态政策响应性；当公众舆论发生实质性变化时，公共政策应该改变，以反映变化的公众偏好。虽然已经在国家一级测试和确认了政策响应性的动态模型，但对国家一级的政策制定知之甚少。这是一个重要的缺陷，因为州政府在重要方面各不相同，这可能会增强或削弱人民在决策中的发言权。为了回答这个问题，调查人员结合了2001-2008年盖洛普民意调查社会消费习惯系列的个人调查数据和当前的人口调查吸烟和烟草补充资料，衡量了随着时间的推移各州对禁烟的偏好。在这两项调查中，受访者被问及他们对工作场所、餐馆、酒吧和酒店禁烟的偏好。在使用最近在总体意见估计方面的方法进步创建了州一级对禁烟的偏好之后，使用国家癌症研究所的州癌症立法数据库汇编的数据，州偏好与在餐馆、酒吧和工作场所通过禁烟有关。这项研究的结果系列将跨越16年，从第一个州采用S之前开始，并包括一年的重叠，以说明可能影响对政策表达支持的潜在“房子”和问题效应。这项研究的更广泛影响体现在将被公开的原始数据集，以及用于生成和验证州民意动态测量的方法的细节。评估方法可以扩展到衡量随着时间的推移在州一级的其他偏好，以及其他态度，如容忍度、信任、效力或信心，这些态度也可能随着时间的推移在各州之间表现出变化。从理论上讲，通过将民意衡量纳入我们的政策采纳模型，我们可以更好地理解其他变量影响政策变化的机制。更广泛地说，这项研究可以评估随着时间的推移，各州在公共卫生领域对普通公民表现出的政策反应的程度。

When citizens change their policy preferences, how closely do policies follow? The answer is central to democratic theory. The principal of popular sovereignty implies some degree of dynamic policy responsiveness; when public opinion changes substantially, public policy should shift to reflect changed public preferences. While dynamic models of policy responsiveness have been tested and confirmed at the national level, much less is known about policymaking at the state level. This is an important shortcoming because state governments vary in important ways that can enhance or diminish the voice of the people in policy making. To answer this question, the investigator measures state preferences towards smoking bans over time by combining individual survey data from the Gallup Poll Social Series on Consumption Habits 2001-2008 and the Current Population Survey Smoking and Tobacco Supplement 1992, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001. In both surveys, respondents were asked their preferences towards smoking bans in workplaces, restaurants, bars, and hotels. After creating state level preferences towards smoking bans using recent methodological advances in aggregate opinion estimation, state preferences are linked to the adoption of smoking bans in restaurants, bars, and workplaces using data compiled from the National Cancer Institute's State Cancer Legislative Database. The resulting series will span sixteen years, begin prior to the first state?s adoption, and include a year of overlap to account for potential "house" and question effects that may influence expressed support for the policy.The broader impacts of the study are embodied in the original dataset that will be made publicly available, along with the details of the methodology used to generate and validate dynamic measures of state public opinion. The methods of estimation can be extended to measure other preferences at the state level over time, as well as other attitudes such as tolerance, trust, efficacy or confidence which may also exhibit over time change across states. Theoretically, by including measures of public opinion into our models of policy adoption, we can better understand the mechanisms through which other variables impact policy changes. More broadly, this research can assess the extent to which states exhibit policy responsive over time to ordinary citizens in the area of public health.