Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The Escalation of Mass Violence Against Civilians

针对平民的大规模暴力升级仍然是政治暴力研究中一个被忽视的主题。该项目研究了内战中大规模暴力的动态，特别是通过研究如何以及在什么条件下暴力升级，降级或升级失败。为了回答这些问题，在布隆迪进行了实地调查，布隆迪是卢旺达和刚果的一个鲜为人知的邻国，经历了40多年的不同程度的暴力。针对平民的暴力行为的这种变化使人们能够调查不同地区和不同时间的升级过程，同时保持许多其他因素不变。这项研究将有助于查明一些地方没有暴力、另一些地方暴力降级以及另一些地方暴力升级的原因。这些原因反过来又可以为如何避免暴力升级和如何在暴力开始后有效减少暴力的政策决定提供信息，初步研究包括国内精英访谈和对未发表的文件和数据的分析，有助于确定导致观察到的针对平民的大规模暴力的差异的四类原因：冲突前的结构变量、导致路径依赖的自我强化过程、冲突的内在动力（暴力如何影响暴力）以及一次性事件或关键时刻（如暗杀）。本项目中关于机制和动力学的问题最好通过定性方法进行分析，这种方法可以解决冲突局势的复杂性。因此，主要通过国家以下一级的民族志调查这些原因，通过深入和反复采访布隆迪10个地区的证人、受害者和前战斗人员收集信息。 这些信息以两种方式使用。首先，在一个非常细分的水平上，升级的过程进行审查，以了解哪些事件后，其他事件，以及是否存在因果关系。其次，一个比较时空单位的框架允许人们测试假设的原因是否存在于它们缺失的类似单位，这使我能够排除潜在的原因，并确定哪些原因似乎具有重要影响。例如，1972年在鲁蒙盖区，对平民的暴力行为十分严重，但1993年在同一地区几乎没有发生暴力行为，而当时该国大部分地区都发生了严重的暴力行为。初步研究表明，地方领导人的团结及其与平民的关系是这两个时期的根本区别。其他时空比较将使人们能够研究其他潜在的原因，例如过去的暴力增加或减少未来暴力的可能性的程度，政治学通常侧重于政治暴力的静态原因，无法解释随时间和空间的变化。该项目为了解政治暴力的动态做出了重要贡献。它也有可能影响政策，以保护大规模暴力地区的平民。对升级过程的理解将有助于就如何创造非升级和降级条件以及如何避免创造升级条件做出明智的决定。 当军队、民兵、叛军或游击队为政治控制而战时，平民首当其冲。该项目旨在提供知识，以打击针对平民的大规模暴力升级，并创造新的思维方式和理解政治暴力。

The escalation of mass violence against civilians has remained a neglected topic in the study of political violence. This project examines the dynamics of mass violence in civil war, and in particular by examining how and under what conditions violence escalates, de-escalates, or fails to escalate. To answer these questions, fieldwork is conducted in Burundi, a little-known neighbor of Rwanda and the Congo that has experienced over four decades of violence at varying levels. This variation in violence against civilians allows one to investigate the processes of escalation in different areas and at different times, while holding many other factors constant. This research will help identify the reasons for a lack of violence in some places, the de-escalation of violence in others, and the escalation of violence in yet others. These reasons can, in turn, inform policy decisions about how to avoid the escalation of violence and how to effectively reduce violence once it has begun.Preliminary research consisting of in-country elite interviews and the analysis of unpublished documents and data helped to indentify four categories of causes that lead to the observed variation in mass violence against civilians: pre-conflict structural variables, self-reinforcing processes leading to path dependency, the endogenous dynamics of the conflict (how violence affects violence), and one-time events or critical junctures (such as assassinations). The questions in this project about mechanisms and dynamics are best analyzed by qualitative methods which can address the complexity of the conflict situation. As such, these causes are investigated primarily through ethnography at the subnational level, by gathering information through in-depth and repeat interviews with witnesses, victims, and ex-combatants in ten districts in Burundi. This information is used in two ways. First, the processes of escalation at a very disaggregated level, are examined in order to understand which events followed other events, and whether a causal relationship appears to exist. Second, a framework in which time-space units are compared allows one to test whether hypothesized causes are present to similar units where they are missing, which allows me to rule out potential causes, as well as to identify which causes seem to have an important effect. For example, violence against civilians was intense in 1972 in the district of Rumonge, but then almost no violence occurred in 1993 in the same district, when most of the country was experiencing severe violence. Preliminary research suggests that the unity of local leaders and their relationships with the civilians was an essential difference between the two periods. Other time-space comparisons will allow one to study other potential causes, such as the extent to which past violence increases or decreases the likelihood of future violence.Political science has often focused on the static causes of political violence, which cannot explain change over time and space. This project makes important contributions to the understanding of the dynamics of political violence. It also has the potential to affect policy in ways that will protect civilians in regions of mass violence. An understanding of the processes of escalation will allow for informed decisions about how to create conditions of non-escalation and de-escalation and how to avoid creating conditions of escalation. When armies, militias, rebels, or guerrillas fight for political control, civilians bear the brunt of the costs. This project seeks to provide knowledge to combat the escalation of mass violence against civilians, as well as to create new ways of thinking and understanding political violence.