Graphical versus Numerical Presentation of Quantitative Environmental Risk Information About Unexploded Ordnance

由于正在进行的军事基地重组运动，美国越来越多的被未爆弹药(UXO)污染的土地正在变为民用。未爆弹药污染的原因是实弹训练演习期间发射的弹药未能按计划发挥作用，留下了遗留下来的弹药，如果受到干扰，可能会引爆。利用现有技术通常不可能完全清除未爆弹药，因此必须就如何平衡未爆弹药的风险和土地转用的好处做出决定。本研究为开发基于证据的未爆弹药风险沟通材料奠定了基础。涉及未爆弹药现场的联邦机构对公众-S理解未爆弹药风险的量化信息的能力表示了相当大的怀疑，部分原因是没有开发出量化的未爆弹药风险评估方法。然而，目前使用的定性方法不允许进行风险-效益分析，这种分析可以为关于应该要求的清理程度和之后可以允许的土地使用类型的决定提供信息。这项研究采用了一种新的综合风险评估方法，提供了最能为这类风险-收益分析提供最佳信息的量化风险信息。目前的工作是研究如何最好地传达这种量化的风险信息，以便公众能够理解和使用这些信息来做出明智的决定。特别是，研究小组评估了图形和数字呈现风险信息对对风险信息的认知和情感反应的影响，以及这些反应反过来如何影响决策。此外，这项研究还考察了这些影响在理解数字风险信息的高能力和低能力的人中的同等程度，以及特定的表征形式是否对数字理解水平不同的人是必要的。最终，这项研究将导致公民更好地了解有关UXO地点的补救和土地再利用的决策。

An increasing amount of land in the United States that is contaminated with unexploded ordnance (UXO) is becoming available for conversion to civilian uses?a result of an ongoing military base restructuring campaign. UXO contamination results from the failure of ammunition launched during live-weapons training exercises to function as planned, leaving a legacy of ordnance items that have the potential to detonate if disturbed. Complete cleanup of UXO generally is not possible with existing technologies, so decisions must be made about how to balance the risks from UXO against the benefits of land conversion. This research provides the foundation for development of evidence-based risk communication materials concerning UXO. Federal agencies involved at UXO sites have expressed considerable skepticism about the public?s ability to comprehend quantitative information about UXO risks and in part for this reason have not pursued development of a quantitative UXO risk assessment approach. The qualitative methods currently in use, however, do not allow for risk-benefit analyses that could inform decisions about the extent of cleanup that should be required and the kinds of land uses that can be permitted afterwards. This research employs a new comprehensive risk assessment method that provides the quantitative risk information that would best inform this type of risk-benefit analysis. The present work examines how this quantitative risk information can best be communicated so that the public can understand and use the information to make informed decisions. In particular, the research team evaluates the effects of graphical versus numerical presentation of the risk information on both cognitive and affective responses to the risk information and how these responses, in turn, affect decision making. Further, this work examines the extent to which these effects hold equally for people with high and low ability to understand numerical risk information and whether specific presentational formats are necessary for people with different levels of numerical understanding. Ultimately, this research will lead to a citizenry that is better informed in making decisions concerning remediation and land reuse at UXO sites.