Collaborative Research: Forecast Generation and Dissemination for the Record Setting 2009 Red River Flood

合作研究：创纪录的2009年红河洪水的预测生成和传播AbstractThe目前前所未有的水文条件下，红河的北部提供了一个难得的机会，记录的作用和人类预报员在预测生成和传播过程中的相互作用。为了应对这一难得的机会，爱荷华州大学和马里兰州巴尔的摩县大学提议进行快速反应研究，继续我们正在进行的合作监测和记录春季融雪季节红河的预测过程。拟议的工作将捕捉和存档关键的瞬态信息，以支持未来的研究水文预报质量和预测价值的低概率高后果的事件。拟议的活动将产生：（1）预报信息档案和NWS人工预报员的业务预报解释，（2）对预报模型的基线质量和人工预报员的附加值的评估，以及（3）这些预报的用户的文档，包括来自NWS预报发布电话会议的参与者和信息流，并在应急响应计划中将预报用途制度化。

Collaborative Research: Forecast Generation and Dissemination for the Record Setting 2009 Red River Flood.AbstractThe current unprecedented hydrologic conditions on the Red River of the North provide a rare opportunity to document the role and interactions of human forecasters in the forecast generation and dissemination process. To respond to this uncommon opportunity the University of Iowa and the University of Maryland Baltimore County propose Rapid Response Research to continue our ongoing collaborative monitoring and documentation of the forecasting process for the Red River through the spring snowmelt season. The proposed work will capture and archive key transient information needed to support future research on hydrologic forecast quality and forecast value for low-probability high-consequence events. The proposed activities will yield: (1) an archive of forecast information and operational forecast interpretation by human forecasters at the NWS, (2) an assessment of the baseline quality of forecast models and the value-added by the human forecasters, and (3) documentation of the users of these forecasts, including the participants and information flows from NWS forecast dissemination conference calls, and forecast uses institutionalized in emergency response plans.