RUI: Interacting effects of climate and invasive herbivores on island plant populations and communities: Santa Rosa Island as a model system

全球气候变化和非本土物种入侵分别被认为是生态社区未来变化和灭绝的最重要的物理和生物驱动因素。这些驱动力可以以复杂的方式相互作用，但关于它们在单一生态系统中的综合影响的研究相对较少。一个多世纪前，牛、鹿和麋鹿被引入圣罗萨岛，这是海峡群岛国家公园的一部分，但从1998年开始被从岛上移走。来自圣罗萨岛的长期数据集将用于开发五种稀有植物的统计和种群模型，并量化它们如何对气候变化和入侵草食动物的消失做出反应。将使用平行分析来确定这些因素对岛屿植物群落组成的影响。比较个体种群和群落的反应，将测试对少数经过充分研究的物种的预测能在多大程度上外推到更大的群落。该项目还将评估物种的反应是否与它们的生活史相关，这种方法可以用来改进对哪些物种处于危险之中的预测。这项工作的结果将有助于更知情的保护管理，特别是对于支持75种特有植物的海峡群岛国家公园。该项目还将继续收集有价值的长期数据集，供其他研究人员使用。这项研究将通过每年创造2-4个暑期研究和高级论文机会来支持本科生的指导和培训。这些数据还将有助于编写传授量化技能的课程材料，并在网上和教育期刊上提供。最后，该项目将涉及大量的公众教育和外展工作。

Global climate change and invasion by non-native species are considered among the most important physical and biological drivers, respectively, of future changes and extinctions in ecological communities. These drivers can interact in complex ways, yet relatively little research has been done on their combined effects in a single ecosystem. Cattle, deer, and elk were introduced to Santa Rosa Island, part of the Channel Islands National Park, more than a century ago, but were removed from the island beginning in 1998. Long-term data sets from Santa Rosa Island will be used to develop statistical and population models for five rare plant species and quantify how they have responded to both climatic variation and the removal of invasive herbivores. A parallel analysis will be used to determine effects of these factors on the composition of island plant communities. Comparing responses for both individual populations and communities will test how well predictions for a few well-studied species can be extrapolated to larger communities. The project also will assess whether species responses are correlated with their life histories, an approach which could be used to improve predictions about which species are at risk.The results of this work will contribute to more informed conservation management, especially for the Channel Islands National Park, which supports 75 endemic plant species. The project will also enable continued collection of valuable long-term data sets that will be accessible for use by other researchers. This study will support mentorship and training of undergraduate students by creating 2-4 summer research and senior thesis opportunities each year. The data will also contribute to development of course materials for teaching quantitative skills, to be made available on the web and in educational journals. Finally, the project will involve substantial public education and outreach efforts.