EAGER: The Joint Ecological and Genetic Dynamics of Metapopulation Extinction

该项目将研究导致物种灭绝的遗传和生态变化，这些物种作为一系列半分离的，空间定位的种群（即，元种群），通过计算密集的分析广泛的经验数据集的许多当地种群的格兰维尔贝母蝴蝶。由于灭绝是概率性的，受许多因素和非线性关系的影响，这是一个“难题”，通常缺乏一般的方法和答案。这项研究将开发和测试高功率计算的能力，以促进对灭绝的理解。该项目将率先应用最近开发的计算密集型软件，以了解可能导致灭绝的一般途径，测试一个物种所遵循的特定途径，这些途径具有广泛的长期数据集，并制作一个用户友好的界面，其他人可以通过该界面应用该软件来估计其他物种的灭绝风险和概率。这项研究是有风险的，但有可能通过新的计算方法大大提高理解。这项研究有可能改变人们对遗传和生态因素在种群中的作用和相互作用的普遍理解，这些种群的斑块分布和小种群规模可能使它们面临灭绝的风险。该项目将产生可供公众使用的开放获取软件。该研究促进了跨学科和定量的国际合作。研究结果对环境管理和保护有重要的应用，特别是在环境变化的时候。

This project will examine the genetic and ecological changes that lead to extinction of species that live as a series of semi-separate, spatially localized populations (i.e., meta-populations) through computationally intensive analysis of an extensive empirical data set for many local populations of the Glanville fritillary butterfly. Because extinction is probabilistic and is affected by many factors and by non-linear relationships, it is a 'hard problem' for which general approaches and answers typically are lacking. This research will develop and test the ability of high-power computation to advance understanding of extinction. The project will pioneer application of recently-developed computationally-intensive software to understand the general pathways that can lead to extinction, to test the particular pathways followed by one species for which an extensive long-term data set is available, and to produce a user-friendly interface through which the software can be applied by others to estimate extinction risks and probabilities for other species. The research is risky, but has the potential for significant advancement of understanding through new computational approaches. The research has the potential to transform general understanding of the roles and interactions of genetic and ecological factors in populations whose patchy distribution and small population sizes may put them at risk of extinction. The project will result in publicly available open-access software. The research fosters an interdisciplinary and quantitative international collaboration. The results have significant applications to environmental management and conservation, particularly in times of environmental change.