Merging Agent-based Modeling Techniques and Ethnography: A New Analytic Tool for Studying Illicit Drug Use Behaviors, Markets and Economies

李·d·霍弗博士将通过综合民族志决策树和基于主体的建模（ABM）技术，作为改进民族志分析和利用的创新策略，对当地非法毒品市场的运作进行模拟研究。本研究的具体目标是：1)对当地市场进行民族志研究，以促进ABM的发展；2)使用生态瞬时评估（EMA）技术丰富这些数据；3)构建一个社会/经济模拟，再现市场的运作方式。复杂性理论认为，社会结构产生于异质行为者改变环境和被环境改变的非线性相互作用。本研究运用ABM方法对一个地方药品市场的新兴和动态社会结构进行了研究，其智力优势在于复杂性理论在社会科学中的实际应用。虽然使用ABM的涌现理论证明很常见，但在人类学中社会模拟的现实世界研究应用中，明确的方法很少。该项目提供了一个框架，可以利用民族志实地调查的结果进行实验，从而增强该方法的分析和描述能力。构建代表结果的模拟也扩展了民族志对决策者的效用，他们对理解人类学家所研究的环境嵌入和社会构建的互动行为的结果感兴趣。这个项目对与非法毒品经济有关的政策以及人种学作为一种研究方法的未来使用具有广泛的影响。目前关于非法药物市场的知识来自两种不同的文献。大多数研究涉及大规模研究，使用从执法部门收集的行政数据和其他间接流行病学指标。这项研究的重点是了解非法毒品经济的联系和结果。另一方面，民族志研究描述了这种经济中的角色、交易以及当地非法毒品市场和组织的运作方式。两种研究视角都是有益的；然而，这两种方法都不能单独地将分析的层次联系起来。使用ABM将当地药品市场作为一个复杂的自适应系统进行研究，将使研究能够扩大结果，进行实验，并产生以前使用其他方法无法获得的结果。这些知识将为制定和评估政策和干预措施以有效减少这些活动的影响提供新的视角。

Dr. Lee D. Hoffer, will undertake research on the simulation of the operation of a local illegal drug market by synthesizing ethnographic decision tree and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) techniques as an innovative strategy for improving ethnographic analysis and utilization. The specific aims of this research are to: 1) conduct an ethnographic study of the local market that facilitates ABM development, 2) enrich these data using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) technologies, and 3) construct a social / economic simulation computer simulation that reproduces how the market operates. Complexity Theory suggests social structures emerge from non-linear interactions of heterogeneous actors changing, and being changed by, their environment. Investigating the emergent and dynamic social structures of a local drug market using ABM, the intellectual merits of this study involve the practical application of Complexity Theory in social science. While theoretical demonstrations of emergence using ABM are common, well articulated methods for real-world research applications of social simulation in anthropology are scarce. This project provides a framework for conducting experiments with findings from ethnographic fieldwork enhancing both the analytic and descriptive capabilities of the methodology. Constructing simulations representing results also expands the utility of ethnography to policymakers interested in understanding the outcomes of the environmentally embedded and socially constructed interactive behaviors that anthropologists study.This project has broad impacts on policy associated with both the illicit drug economy, as well as future uses of ethnography as a research methodology. Current knowledge about illicit drug markets is informed by two distinct literatures. The majority of research involves large-scale studies using data collected administratively from law enforcement, and other indirect epidemiological indicators. This research focuses on understanding associations and outcomes of the illicit drug economy. On the other hand, ethnographic research has described roles within this economy, transactions, and how local illicit drug markets and organizations operate. Both research perspectives are informative; however, neither individually is equipped to link levels of analysis. Researching the local drug market as a Complex Adaptive System using ABM will allow research to scale-up results, conduct experiments, and generate outcomes previously unavailable using other methods. This knowledge will provide a new perspective for constructing and evaluating policies and interventions to effectively reduce the impact of these activities.